Algeria is doing well. And very well indeed. With a low level of external debt, a GDP of 171 billion dollars in 2008, a market of 35 million inhabitants and an annual GDP growth1 of 9 % in 2009 when the rest of the world was lamenting, it can hardly complain. And yet.<\/p>\n
\nThe crisis has shown the fragility of oil resources,\" explains Patrick Gay, financial adviser to the Algerian Economic Mission. In 2009, with the drop in the price per barrel, Algerian revenues fell by 40 %\". The country has now realised that an economy based on hydrocarbons, which could almost be described as a rent-based economy - although they account for around 50 % of GDP, they employ only 3 % of the working population, account for 75 % of tax revenue and represent 98 % of foreign currency resources - has serious consequences. Starting with dependence on imports. \"The $40 billion in imports in 2009 represented around 25 % of GDP\", adds Patrick Gay. Algeria is the second-largest importer of cars in Africa, the third-largest importer of cereals and dairy products in the world, and the fifth-largest importer of sugar. Until now, 75 % of medicines were imported; but recently, Sanofi-Avantis became the first foreign laboratory to develop its generics locally\", says Sarida Bendjeddou, head of the Sustainable and Industrial Development Unit at the Economic Mission. With the agreement of the authorities, the group is in the process of developing its expansion capacities, which will enable it to produce nearly 80 % of the drugs consumed.<\/p>\n
\nThe same strategy is being pursued in the agri-food sector, with the construction of a sugar factory, although this does not rule out some protectionist initiatives. \"Sarida Bendjeddou explains: \"At the moment, there are a lot of new measures governing foreign investment. For example, it is now necessary to find an Algerian partner (51% % shareholder) when you come to invest. These measures, which in particular restrict the transfer of profits, are aimed at breaking with the \"import\" bill, but also at relaunching and giving birth to industrial production. It's a bit scary,\" explains Paule Tourniaire, from the International Affairs Department of the Marseille Provence Chamber of Commerce and Industry, \"but I'm convinced that, in the end, foreign companies will adapt and resume trading as they did in the past.<\/p>\n
\nThese measures will also enable diversification, because while the services (around 28 % of GDP) and construction sectors are doing rather well, thanks in particular to the current major construction projects, agriculture (around 12.5 % of GDP) could be stimulated. Industry, inherited from the 1960s and 1970s, is virtually dormant, accounting for less than 5 % of GDP. Algeria is therefore banking on the revival of this sector, but it faces another problem: a significant proportion of national income comes from an informal economy that does not respect the laws of transparency. These activities are as difficult to identify as they are to curb, since they make a major contribution to employment (in a country where the unemployment rate is 10.2 %, compared with 31 % in 2003 and 17 % in 2006).<\/p>\n
\nAlthough marked by an all-powerful administration that is suspicious of the private sector and individual initiative... the Algerian market still has some of the greatest potential in the world. Having emerged from the black decade ten years ago with a debt of 20 billion, Algeria now only has a debt of 4 billion. Even tourism is stagnating (1 % of GDP) despite the country's considerable assets: more than 1,200 kilometres of coastline, mountains, deserts, ancient sites, etc. On the major projects front, things seem to be moving. The brand-new Bab Ezzouar shopping and business centre opened its doors to the public in the summer of 2010, and the Algiers M\u00e9dina project, where the Hilton hotel is due to stand alongside new office towers and a magnificent marina, is scheduled for completion in 2015. Public projects, such as the future Algiers metro operated by RATP and the tramway built by Alstom, should also be completed soon. \"This is a country that is building itself through its major projects, thanks to its petrochemical and gas industry, but it lacks the skills that need to be brought in from abroad\", explains Sarida Bendjeddou. As a result, the five major new towns due to be built in the near future will be built using Korean know-how. \"These cities will serve as technopoles, but their mission will also be to relieve the population concentrated on the coast\", explains S\u00e9verine Labory, project manager for sustainable development in Algeria. Indeed, 80 % of Algerians live on 10 % of land, along the coast.<\/p>\n
\nThe future town of Sidi Abdallah, located 25 km from the capital, should soon become a second population concentration point in the Algiers conurbation. This technology centre, specialising in ICT, biotechnology and pharmaceuticals, will house a cyberpark and a business incubator, twenty of which are already in operation, as well as leisure areas, a university centre and a hospital. Boughezoul, in the highlands, will be a centre for biotechnology, renewable energy and agro-technology, including the development of dairy farms to reduce milk imports.<\/p>\n
\nThis project, which looks like the Brasilia of the 21st century, was for a time considered as a potential capital bis. It may be a utopian dream, but the budget is far from a mirage. In fact, between 200 and 300 billion dollars will be deployed as part of the new five-year plan, which includes all these plans for the cities of the future. As the Algerians say, \"we have the money, we just don't have the expertise\". All that remains is to stimulate learning and provide a framework for education...
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