{"id":18605,"date":"2011-06-15T17:41:00","date_gmt":"2011-06-15T16:41:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.voyages-d-affaires.com\/golfe-legeres-turbulences-20110615.html"},"modified":"2016-02-10T09:56:40","modified_gmt":"2016-02-10T08:56:40","slug":"gulf-light-turbulence","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.voyages-d-affaires.com\/en\/gulf-light-turbulence","title":{"rendered":"Gulf - Slight turbulence"},"content":{"rendered":"

Joe Rajadurai, Qatar Airways' General Manager for Thailand, Cambodia and Burma, is a little taken aback: The events in Tunisia and Egypt have of course had consequences, but probably not the ones we think,\" says this jovial Sri Lankan, a veteran of the airline. Demand for our flights has not slowed down at all. On the contrary, we are seeing a shift towards Thailand or Malaysia of our customers used to flying to Egypt or North Africa. As a result, it has become virtually impossible to find a seat on our planes\".<\/em>.<\/p>\n

If the Arab world is indeed shaken by a popular movement similar to the one that shook Central Europe twenty years ago, the various \"jasmine revolutions<\/em> - named after the movement that began in Tunisia in January 2011 - have not weighed too heavily on the activity of the region's airlines. Even if, in February, the occupancy rate of Emirates Airlines aircraft had fallen to 75 %, compared with 82 % a few months earlier. Dubai's national airline has also seen a decline in traffic - particularly in the high contribution classes - to Egypt, Tunisia and Yemen. The latter has even seen its traffic plummet due to political instability that has persisted for many months, while the Libyan crisis has led to the complete suspension of civil flights to this country since mid-February. All in all, Emirates CEO Tim Clarke expects the carrier's profits for the 2010\/2011 financial year to be down on the previous year. But he stresses that, at the same time, it should \"remain consistent\".<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Limited consequences<\/strong><\/span><\/span>
This is because the growth model generally chosen by Gulf airlines guarantees their resilience in the face of events, whatever their nature. The proof: during the financial crisis, which led to a sharp reduction in capacity among the world's major carriers, including in Asia, the Middle East remained the only island of growth. The dynamism of this region, which was barely affected by the collapse of the financial markets, is a long-term trend. According to statistics from OAG, the leading source of figures on air transport, seat capacity to and from the Middle East has increased by 161 % between 2001 and today. From a capacity of 4.14 million in January 2001, the number of seats available reached 11.68 million last January. In the space of a decade, the Middle East's share of world air traffic will have doubled from 5.5 % to 11 %.<\/p>\n

\"Turkish<\/p>\n

With direct flights to Bangkok, Baku, Beirut and Basel-Mulhouse, Turkish Airlines<\/strong>a Star Alliance member, is taking full advantage of Turkey's strategic position at the crossroads between Europe and the Orient.<\/em><\/p>\n

Solid foundations<\/strong><\/span><\/span>
There is a major difference between the recent global economic turmoil and the current political crisis, because this time the latter is directly affecting the region. However, the fundamentals that explain the success of the Gulf carriers have not in fact changed an inch: the region's carriers make their living mainly from transfer or transit traffic, with local traffic generally only contributing between 15 % and 20 % of revenues. The message being hammered home by the heads of Emirates, Qatar Airways, Etihad and Turkish Airlines could not be clearer: their business remains above all global, with their respective hubs acting as gateways, between Europe and Asia-Pacific in particular.<\/p>\n

This position is naturally due to the region's low population density. Excluding Iran and Iraq, the total population of the Persian Gulf is barely 90 million. Passengers therefore have to be sought elsewhere, even if the region's economic and tourist development is attracting more and more visitors to the Gulf, adding to its position at the crossroads of continents. \"From Doha, we reach 70 % of the world's population in less than eight hours of flying time\".<\/em>says Akbar Al Baker, CEO of Qatar Airways. The rise of the Middle Eastern carriers can also be explained by the desire of their respective governments to equip themselves with exceptional logistical resources. Orders for aircraft number in the dozens, if not in the hundreds in the case of Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad. Major airport projects are accompanying this intense development, from the Al Maktoum airport in Dubai to the New Doha International Airport in Qatar, not forgetting the new terminals in Muscat, Abu Dhabi and Riyadh.<\/p>\n

\"A<\/p>\n

A la carte restaurants<\/em><\/strong>Qatar Airways' Premium Terminal has revolutionised the way First and Business Class passengers are welcomed, with its comfort, spa and private duty-free shops. An equally exclusive space is planned for 2012 at the new Doha airport.<\/em><\/p>\n

With the explosive growth of networks and the massive arrival of new capacity, there is not an airport in Europe that does not dream of welcoming its Gulf carrier. \"Because the presence of these carriers means we can finally access Asian markets, the world's most dynamic continent\".<\/em>says Catherine Gay, Director of Strategy and Development at Toulouse airport. In France, after Paris and Nice, Lyon and Toulouse are cherishing the hope of being linked to the Gulf and could soon see their wishes come true.<\/p>\n

While Emirates was the first airline in the region to earn its stripes as a global carrier back in the mid-1980s, many competitors have followed in its footsteps. Today, four carriers are neck and neck in the conquest of world markets: Emirates Airlines in Dubai, Etihad Airways in Abu Dhabi and Qatar Airways in Doha, to which we can also add Turkish Airlines, thanks to its Istanbul hub, which gives it the advantage of being located at the confluence of these two markets. This summer, the airline will serve 171 destinations, including more than 70 in Europe, with its Airbus A320 and Boeing 737-800 aircraft. Turkish is one of the few airlines to offer flights to medium-sized cities such as Basel\/Mulhouse and Toulouse since this spring.<\/p>\n

Strong competition<\/strong><\/span><\/span>
However, Emirates still retains its pre-eminence with 110 destinations served in 66 countries. This position has been strengthened by the planned launch in early 2012 of a non-stop flight to Rio de Janeiro, with an extension to Buenos Aires. But it is now being overtaken by two of its rivals, Qatar Airways and Etihad. In early April, Qatar symbolically celebrated the launch of its 100th destination, Aleppo in Syria. In one year, the Qatari carrier will have inaugurated a dozen new services, including Brussels and Nice during the winter season. The Abu Dhabi airline is not to be outdone. James Hogan, its CEO, estimates that \"that no other carrier in the world has grown as fast as its airline\".<\/em>. It took Etihad just eight years to record 7.5 million passengers, a much shorter time than Qatar Airways (13 years) or Emirates (18 years).<\/p>\n

In addition to Etihad and Qatar Airways, airlines such as Egyptair, Ethiopian Airlines, Middle East Airlines (MEA) and Royal Jordanian are increasingly taking inspiration from this global airline model, opening up new routes in recent years. Courted by the major alliances, Royal Jordanian became the first Middle Eastern airline to join Oneworld in 2008, while MEA and Saudi Arabian are preparing to join SkyTeam in 2012. Experts believe that this is just the beginning. Gulf Air, Kuwait Airways and even Etihad could follow suit in the longer term.<\/p>\n

Others, such as Oman Air, Gulf Air and Kuwait Airways, concentrate on more regional services, with connections to a few major international cities. One of the most dynamic of these is Oman Air, whose business model has undergone radical change since the Sultanate of Oman withdrew from Gulf Air in 2007. \"This marked the start of the transformation from a regional airline to an intercontinental carrier with flights to Frankfurt, London, Milan, Munich and Paris. But we have no intention of competing with the big Gulf carriers like Emirates or Qatar. On the contrary, we want to promote point-to-point traffic to a niche market that wants to discover Oman first and foremost.<\/em>says Philippe Georgiou, Managing Director Corporate Affairs at Oman Air. In four years, its network has doubled to 40 destinations.<\/p>\n

\"Etihad<\/p>\n

Impressive growth<\/em><\/strong> From its hub in Abu Dhabi, Etihad Airways was named Best Airline in the Middle East at the World Travel Awards ceremony. The airline also won a trophy for its First Class, crew and entertainment programme.<\/em><\/p>\n

In this landscape, the national carrier Saudi Arabian Airlines remains a special case. It is the only airline with a truly domestic market, with a population of 26 million and long distances between the country's major cities. And the acquisition of Sky Team will probably further enhance the carrier's position at the forefront of the international scene. In fact, Saudi Arabian's wedding basket will include 35 new destinations for the alliance. In addition, an order for 36 aircraft will bolster a fleet currently made up of almost 150 aircraft. By 2015, the airline will also benefit from the redevelopment of Riyadh airport, its main hub. The project includes the construction of four new terminals with a total capacity of 80 million passengers, the integration of a high-speed train line and the lengthening of runways to accommodate Airbus A380s. The first phase of the project will initially increase the airport's capacity from 13 to 30 million passengers a year.<\/p>\n

However, the political crisis in the Middle East poses risks for some local carriers, and is likely to accelerate the changes that have become necessary due to overcapacity in the region. Gulf Air and Kuwait Airways are the first to be affected. The former has been going through a difficult period for the past decade, with the Emirates of Abu Dhabi, Dubai and the Sultanate of Oman withdrawing from its capital. Now refocused on Bahrain, its main hub since this emirate became the airline's sole shareholder, Gulf Air has had to restructure its network in recent years, closing certain long-haul stopovers in favour of denser regional routes. And the current crisis has forced the carrier to review its development model once again. For example, Gulf Air has suspended services to Iran, Iraq and Lebanon until the end of April. The airline is also studying a review of its long-haul flights, a plan which it will make public as soon as the situation in the region stabilises.<\/p>\n

Redefining models<\/strong><\/span><\/span>
Kuwait Airways, for its part, has re-evaluated its network in recent years. The company, which has an ageing fleet, is still looking for a new lease of life. But decisions are dragging on, with Kuwait Airways having to juggle with the ups and downs of a long-promised privatisation that has been slow to take shape.<\/p>\n

\"Bahrain<\/p>\n

Developed jointly by the Gulf States<\/em><\/strong>Bahrain's Gulf Air has been flying on its own since each emirate launched its own carrier.<\/em><\/p>\n

Because of the turbulence in its own country, Egypt Air, the region's fourth largest airline in terms of capacity, with almost 430,000 seats a week, is the most exposed, not least because of the fall in tourism, an industry that accounts for 12 billion dollars - 8.5 billion euros - of its GDP. The carrier has reduced its capacity since February, but its CEO, Hussein Massoud, says that as the situation normalises, the airline should return to a full schedule towards the end of the summer. New routes to Toronto and Washington with a brand new Boeing 777, initially planned for May, have however been postponed. Another national airline hard hit by the political upheaval is Yemen Airways. However, this has had no real impact internationally, as Yemen remains a marginal market in the Middle East.<\/p>\n

The latest victims are local low-cost airlines such as Air Arabia, which are highly dependent on the movement of migrant workers in the region. One of them, Watanyia Airways, based in Kuwait, had to cease operations at the beginning of March. However, there is every reason to believe that once social and political peace returns to this part of the world, the skies will soon clear again for Middle Eastern airlines. For, in any case, passengers continue to favour Emirates, Etihad and their ilk. It's hard to resist their excellent quality of service and, what's more, their particularly attractive fares...<\/p>\n

Number of frequencies operated by airlines from the Middle East to French-speaking Europe (April 2011)<\/span><\/strong><\/span>
\"Number<\/p>\n