{"id":224497,"date":"2026-06-08T13:20:48","date_gmt":"2026-06-08T11:20:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.voyages-d-affaires.com\/?p=224497"},"modified":"2026-06-09T10:30:43","modified_gmt":"2026-06-09T08:30:43","slug":"iata-benefits-drop-golf","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.voyages-d-affaires.com\/en\/iata-benefits-drop-golf","title":{"rendered":"IATA: no jet fuel shortage but rising prices and falling profits"},"content":{"rendered":"

The International Air Transport Association 2026 Annual General Meeting IATA<\/a> <\/strong>has just ended in Rio de Janeiro. With an easy-to-guess conclusion: The Gulf War between the United States, Israel and Iran<\/a> aura des cons\u00e9quences \u00e9conomiques sur le bilan \u00e9conomique des compagnies a\u00e9riennes plus que sur leur activit\u00e9.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

IATA has significantly lowered its financial outlook for the global airline sector. The association estimates that the intensification of the conflict in the Middle East and the surge in fuel prices will reduce airline profitability by almost half in 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2026, airlines are forecast to generate a combined net profit of $23 billion, down from $45 billion in 2025. This is also well below the previous forecast, which had predicted $41 billion in profits this year. The sector\u2019s net margin is therefore expected to fall to 2.1% in Q3, compared with 4.2% in Q3 last year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to IATA, the airline industry will remain profitable overall, but it will have to contend with a sharp rise in fuel costs, a slowdown in the economic environment, and operational disruptions linked to the war in the Middle East.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\" The disruptions caused by the conflict in the Middle East and the rise in fuel prices have significantly worsened the sector's outlook.<\/em>, said Willie Walsh, IATA Director General. He continued: \u201c We expect average jet fuel prices to be 70% higher in 2026 than in 2025. This represents an additional cost of $100 billion on our collective fuel bill this year <\/em>\".<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the Director General of IATA, the war in the Gulf and the surge in prices do not appear to be affecting demand as severely as initially estimated at the start of the conflict in late February. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In fact, demand, while showing a slight dip, is holding steady. According to Willie Walsh, this is a far cry from the catastrophe that the COVID pandemic generated.\u00a0Our surveys suggest that 86% of travellers expect fares to follow oil prices. In line with this, 49% expect to spend more on their travels this year than last year. A further 43% plan to spend the same amount\u00a0<\/em>\".<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\" The silver lining is that demand remains steady, even though airlines are raising fares and prices in order to recoup some of the costs associated with the oil price shock. However, growth will inevitably be slower, at 2.4% year-on-year for the passenger sector <\/em>\", adds Willie Walsh.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Passenger numbers are expected to reach a new record of 5.1 billion, whilst the average load factor is set to reach a record high of 84 %, indicating continued strong demand for air travel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Against this challenging backdrop, global air transport revenue is expected to grow by 9.4% year-on-year to reach a record high of $1,165 billion. This growth will be driven primarily by higher airfares and ancillary revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ticket sales revenue is expected to reach 839 billion 1Q4Q in 2026 (+9.2% 1Q3Q compared with 768 billion 1Q4Q in 2025). Yields on ticket prices are expected to rise by 7% year-on-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Middle East in the red<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Growth will nevertheless vary from region to region. The Middle East is expected to be the only region in the world where airlines will collectively post losses in 2026. IATA estimates these losses at -$4.3 billion, compared with a profit of $7.2 billion in 2025. Earnings per passenger are set to stand at -21.40 $, compared with 31.50$ a year earlier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gulf carriers are particularly affected by airspace closures, flight diversions and operational uncertainty caused by the regional conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Europe and North America will continue to post the strongest economic performance. IATA estimates that European airlines are expected to generate a profit of $9.6 billion, with earnings per passenger of $7.501. In North America, IATA forecasts a profit of $9.4 billion and a profit per passenger of 8.10$.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Asia-Pacific region follows with a profit of $6.6 billion and Latin America with $1.2 billion. African airlines will also make a profit, but a very small one, as IATA estimates it at just $0.1 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fuel: 31.41% of operating costs in 2026<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the rise in revenue will not be enough to offset the surge in costs. Operating expenditure in the sector is expected to jump by 13% in Q3 to reach $1,117 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fuel is the main cause for concern. IATA forecasts that airlines\u2019 fuel costs will rise by nearly 40 per cent, from $252 billion in 2025 to $350 billion in 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The average price of jet fuel is expected to reach $152 per barrel, which is nearly 70% higher than in 2025. Although many companies have hedged part of their requirements through hedging transactions, they remain highly exposed to further rises in energy prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fuel will therefore account for 31.4% of operating costs in 2026, compared with 25.4% a year earlier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A situation that is exacerbated by the delays that companies continue to experience in the aeronautical supply chain. These aircraft delivery delays have pushed the backlog to 18,100 aircraft on order by May 2026, up from 17,000 in 2024, representing more than half of the active fleet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This situation forces carriers to extend the operational life of older aircraft, which in turn increases maintenance costs and slows down gains in energy efficiency.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

No oil shortage, but rising prices for travellers and falling profits for airlines: here are the IATA forecasts for 2026.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":224513,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[2079,2107,2529],"type-darticle":[52],"n_magazine":[],"class_list":["post-224497","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-aerien","tag-iata","tag-transport-aerien","tag-guerre-du-golfe","type-darticle-breve","vapo-free"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nIATA revoit ses pr\u00e9visions \u00e0 la baisse avec la guerre dans le Golfe<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"IATA pr\u00e9voit une ann\u00e9e de b\u00e9n\u00e9fices pour le transport a\u00e9rien mondial, mais un b\u00e9n\u00e9fice divis\u00e9 par deux avec la crise dans le Golfe.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, 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