{"id":96249,"date":"2020-04-24T09:28:49","date_gmt":"2020-04-24T07:28:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.voyages-d-affaires.com\/?p=96249"},"modified":"2020-05-05T14:30:38","modified_gmt":"2020-05-05T12:30:38","slug":"train-force-crisis-covid19","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.voyages-d-affaires.com\/en\/train-force-crisis-covid19","title":{"rendered":"Is the train in a strong position after the crisis?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>In a post-confinement world, where the <strong>Covid-19<\/strong> would act like a sword of Damocles over travel, the battle is likely to be fierce between the <strong>rail<\/strong> and <strong>Air<\/strong> to attract future travellers, particularly on routes that are relatively <strong>short<\/strong>. Since the launch of the high-speed rail networks, we already know that the train has gradually eaten into the aeroplane's market share on routes that the train can cover in three hours. In France, the <strong>TGV<\/strong> decimated air routes such as Paris-Lyon and Paris-<a href=\"https:\/\/www.voyages-d-affaires.com\/en\/euronantes-gare-gloire-20200127.html\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Nantes<\/a>Paris-<a href=\"https:\/\/www.voyages-d-affaires.com\/en\/bordeaux-renaissance-grande-vitesse-20170703.html\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Bordeaux<\/a> or Paris-<a href=\"https:\/\/www.voyages-d-affaires.com\/en\/archipel-phare-europeen-strasbourg-20200127.html\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Strasbourg<\/a>. With the exception of the Paris-Strasbourg route, which has disappeared altogether, the airlines had succeeded in <strong>build loyalty among a core group of passengers<\/strong>often <strong>business travellers<\/strong>. In Europe, the damage was just as devastating, with the disappearance of airlines such as Paris-Cologne, Paris-Stuttgart, Paris-Berne, Paris-London City Airport and Paris- Paris.<a href=\"https:\/\/www.voyages-d-affaires.com\/en\/bruxelles-economie-art-reconversion-20191001.html\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Brussels<\/a>. Flights were also halted on a large part of the Austrian domestic network and on routes such as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.voyages-d-affaires.com\/en\/berlin-moins-rebelle-plus-high-tech-20181123.html\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Berlin<\/a>-Hamburg or Geneva-Basel, or the significant drop in traffic on Spanish domestic routes.<\/p>\n<p>The last two years have also seen an increase in the number of passengers turning away from the plane for the following reasons <strong>environmental<\/strong>a phenomenon that first affected Scandinavia under the name of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.voyages-d-affaires.com\/en\/suede-honte-avion-sj-ferroviaire-20190701.html\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><strong>\"flygskam<\/strong> (the \"shame of stealing\")<\/a> but has also reached the Netherlands and Switzerland. In 2019, for example, air traffic in <strong>Sweden<\/strong> fell by 4.4% for the ten airports belonging to the airport operator Swedavia, while in Geneva, the slight increase in passenger numbers in 2019 to 1.4% was due in particular to a \" <em>travellers' relative appetite for air travel<\/em> \"says the annual report of the Geneva airport authority.<\/p>\n<p>COVID-19 could mean a haemorrhage for airports with the accelerated closure of airlines. A detailed analysis of the<strong>UBS - Union Bank of Switzerland <\/strong>- forecasts that global air transport growth for the decade <strong>2018-2028<\/strong> could in fact <strong>decrease of 10 % compared to forecasts<\/strong> than before the coronavirus epidemic, largely due to an acceleration in the number of <strong>passenger transfers from plane to train<\/strong> high-speed trains. Although air transport is still expected to grow by 4.6% worldwide, compared with a previous forecast of 5.1%, growth will turn negative in Europe. UBS estimates that it should actually fall by 0.1% against a pre-COVID-19 estimate of 4.1%. Air transport growth in the United States should be revised from 3.2% to 2.8%, and in China from 8.1% to 6.4%.<\/p>\n<p>Such a reduction in demand would require the <strong>withdrawal of around 2,000 aircraft<\/strong> over the next ten years - or around 196 aircraft a year - which, according to UBS analysts, would save between 2.7 and 3.4 million tonnes of carbon dioxide a year.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_96257\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-96257\" style=\"width: 619px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-96257 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.voyages-d-affaires.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/ubs-train-.jpg\" alt=\"UBS\" width=\"619\" height=\"481\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.voyages-d-affaires.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/ubs-train-.jpg 619w, https:\/\/www.voyages-d-affaires.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/ubs-train--300x233-derived.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 619px) 100vw, 619px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-96257\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Rail set to gain market share from air, according to study published by UBS<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>But the ecological argument is now winning over travellers, and is translating into a <strong>greater tolerance for longer train journey times<\/strong>. The results of a survey of 1,000 people in four European countries and China carried out by UBS Evidence Lab suggest that leisure travellers would accept train journeys of five to six hours, while leisure travellers would accept journeys of five to six hours. <strong>business travellers<\/strong> would now accept <strong>four-hour journeys<\/strong> instead of the two to three hours accepted until now.<\/p>\n<p>In addition, COVID-19 highlights travellers' demand for a form of mobility that takes account of the environment. <strong>health security<\/strong> as an essential element. However, many passengers believe that maintaining sanitary distances will be easier to apply on trains than on planes. De facto neutralising seats on a train can be easily done at the time of booking, as can the introduction of additional frequencies.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>find standard measures applying to air, rail and public transport<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>However, the problem of passengers with luggage, waiting times on platforms to avoid overcrowding and controlling the flow of people entering and leaving stations will still have to be resolved. These are issues that airports will also have to deal with. \" <em>The subject of social and health distancing calls for a new approach. <strong>uniform response<\/strong> for everyone involved in transport. We need to find <strong>standard measurements<\/strong> applying to air, rail and public transport to guarantee health safety for all passengers<\/em> \"says Philippe Bernand, Chairman of the Management Board of L'Or\u00e9al.<a href=\"https:\/\/www.voyages-d-affaires.com\/en\/aeroport-marseille-croissance-20200117.html\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Marseille Provence Airport<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>On the basis of the UBS analysis, the European <strong>TGV<\/strong> could generate sales of <strong>11 billion euros by 2022<\/strong>5.9 billion, well above the previous forecast of<strong>UNIFE<\/strong>the European rail industry body. The enthusiasm for the railways could also be stimulated by the opening up of the railways to competition, which is now a reality in the European Union.<\/p>\n<h4><span style=\"color: #a71f31;\">READ ALSO: \"\u00a0<a style=\"color: #a71f31;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.voyages-d-affaires.com\/en\/sncf-ferroviaire-concurrence-20200107.html\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Rail is (finally) opening up to competition<\/a>\"\u00a0<\/span><\/h4>\n<p>Until a vaccine or medicines are found that can contain the spread of the virus, rail will have a clear advantage over airlines, particularly the main carriers. <strong>low-cost<\/strong> which are positioned in the same point-to-point traffic segment. Stricter hygiene measures, such as the systematic cleaning of aircraft after each flight, will increase turnaround times on the ground: an unfavourable factor for the low-cost system, whose aircraft generally remain on the ground for between 30 and 45 minutes on average. In addition, the social distancing on board the aircraft could result in a third of the seats in the cabin being neutralised. With a <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.voyages-d-affaires.com\/en\/iata-compagnies-norme-66-covid-20200417.html\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">maximum fill rate of 66%<\/a><\/strong> - i.e. around 120 to 130 seats compared with 180 seats on an Airbus A320 - most low-cost carriers will lose money. Unless they increase fares drastically... and then lose low-cost airline regulars. The equation seems insoluble. But as Philippe Bernand says, \" <em>Low-cost has always shown great agility in the past. The industry will certainly be able to adapt!<\/em> \".<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The TGV should be better placed than its airline competitor in the \"post-Covid-19 world\", particularly for business travellers. And the low-cost airline model could well be put to the test in the near future...<\/p>","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":96255,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59,61],"tags":[131,1353,1539,1619,2087],"type-darticle":[],"n_magazine":[],"class_list":["post-96249","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-aerien","category-ferroviaire","tag-compagnies-aeriennes","tag-compagnies-ferroviaires","tag-tgv","tag-sante","tag-covid-19","vapo-free"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.9 (Yoast SEO v25.9) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Le train en position de force apr\u00e8s la crise du Covid-19 ?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Le TGV devrait \u00eatre mieux plac\u00e9 que son concurrent a\u00e9rien dans &quot;le monde d&#039;apr\u00e8s Covid-19&quot;, notamment pour les voyageurs d&#039;affaires. 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