Maximum turbulence for companies

The images seem belong to another era. And yet it was only a year ago... At the time, airline advertisements showed business travellers relaxing at the bar in an airport lounge, flight attendants transforming an armchair into a comfortable bed. Since then, a disaster has befallen the air transport industry: covid-19. A virus that has torn 50 years of development to shreds of an industry that was thought to be, if not invincible, at least resilient to bad times.

As a result of the pandemic, borders around the world have virtually closed for the first time since the Second World War. According to the World Tourism Organisation (WTO), only 3 % of the world's destinations had kept their borders open at the beginning of May. The situation has gradually improved, with the UNWTO estimating the figure at 40 % at the beginning of August. However, the UN agency noted that 115 destinations remained in a state of "splendid isolation".

Air transport was the first to be affected by this situation, leading to the almost total blackout of international lines in many countries. Australia, China, Finland, India, Ireland, Japan, Oman, South Africa, Thailand and the United States are just some of the countries that live in virtual autarky.

According to estimates by International Air Transport Association (IATA) last June, the number of passengers expressed in revenue/passenger/km should fall by 55 % in 202060 % if the epidemic continues. This would mean a sharp fall in passenger numbers, from 4.55 billion in 2019 to just 2 billion this year.

The outlook for air transport is hardly encouraging. Because Covid-19 has not only closed borders, but the coronavirus has also is destroying global economic growth. IATA analysts are forecasting a 5 % drop in world GDP and a 13 % fall in trade for 2020. The OECD, for its part, is talking about an unemployment rate that should affect 9.2 % of the population worldwide, compared with 5.4 % in 2019. A record since the 1929 crisis.

As a result, IATA expects net losses of $84 billion for airlines in 2020. The association says that between January and July, 7.5 million flights simply disappeared off the radar. And the experts keep putting off the date for a return to normal. After having counted on 2022 for a return to traffic levels similar to 2019, the airlines very quickly took 2023 as their new horizon. The latest estimates now put the end of the crisis at 2024.

Because demand has well and truly evaporated. According to the latest IATA passenger survey carried out in June, the majority (55 %) of those questioned were not planning to travel in 2020. Given the uncertainties surrounding a second wave of infectionsIATA believes that only the containment of the virus, the availability of vaccines and the perception of excellent health safety will be the determining factors in bringing the public back to flying in the short term.

After having counted on 2022 to return to traffic levels similar to 2019, the airlines were quick to take 2023 as their new horizon. The latest estimates now point to 2024.

If there is a recoveryIn any case, the recovery will be gradual. Domestic and regional traffic, driven by the leisure and affinity segments, started to pick up again in June. On the other hand, business travel and long-haul flights are still on the decline. still suffering. Segments that are far more sensitive to external constraints such as quarantines or the ballet of border openings and closures.

It's all a blur, and airlines now have to work in this context. "I have to admit that, in my entire career, I had never seen such volatility in our businessdescribes Jean Marc Grazzini, Executive Vice President of Air Australthe Reunion-based company. The air transport business is planned months in advance because of fleet constraints or time slots. Uncertainty has become the norm, and we have to learn to live with it."

International consultant OAGwhich analyses and publishes the timetables of all the world's airlines, has noted a rollercoaster ride in terms of supply, fluctuating according to the vagaries of the moment and government decisions. This was the case in mid-August, for example, when British companies have suddenly reduced their offere following the reintroduction of quarantines for travellers returning to the UK. The imposition of compulsory (and often chargeable) isolation to enter a country is probably the first inhibiting factor, especially for business travellers. How can you imagine taking off to discuss business if you first have to spend two weeks in confinement? IATA is constantly hammer home the message that it's time to streamline protocolsThe recovery seems to be getting further away by the month.

To stimulate demand, some airlines are hoping to create "travel bubbles. In this context, the German Air Transport Association (BDL) suggested in mid-August that certain airports in Europe and the United States be designated for the resumption of flights between the two continents. Passengers would be tested on departure and arrival to ensure that they are not carriers of the virus.

Aéroports de Paris, for example, was one of the first airports in Europe to test this "health corridors" formula, in the midst of confinement, with harmonised measures between Paris CDG and Reunion Island. However, this solution has so far struggled to find followers. The famous travel bubbles, a pragmatic solution waiting for a vaccineThese fears are also being played on by many governments with nationalist agendas. These fears are also being played on by many governments with nationalist agendas. This is the case in the United States, where the Trump administration has found an excellent opportunity to cut the country off from the rest of the planet. The same reflexes can be found in Asia, where China, Korea, Japan, Thailand and Vietnam see it as a way of limiting a foreign presence deemed too contagious.

Forced and coercedIn the wake of the coronavirus, the air transport industry has had to learn how to manage the hazards of travel in the era of the coronavirus. Starting with revised and reinforced hygiene measures at every stage. To achieve this, the sector has worked closely with various international institutions to create protocols aimed at ensure passenger safety and crews. These protocols begin as soon as the journey is prepared, with a large part of the ticket purchase and check-in process now only carried out online to limit physical contact with ground staff.

It is in the name of this same limitation of physical contact access to terminals is restricted to passengers only. In this respect, airports are following the measures recommended by Airports Association International (ACI), which in June defined a hygiene certification with criteria designed to guarantee optimum passenger safety. The new Istanbul airport, for example, was the first to receive this certification in August.

In practice, ACI certification assesses all areas through which passengers pass and the procedures associated with each stage. This includes terminal access, check-in areas, security checks, boarding gates, border control areas and facilities, baggage reclaim areas and airport exits. Protocol down to the smallest detailIt defines the management of lounges, shops and catering areas, including the presentation of food, as well as boarding gate equipment such as gangways, escalators and lifts.

For passengers, the most visible aspects of these changes are the requirement to wear a mask, the widespread availability of hydro-alcoholic gel, the floor markings to help maintain distances, the taking temperature on arrival or in transit, not forgetting gradual boarding, generally starting with the rows at the back of the cabins. Many carriers have given up priority boarding for premium passengers, at least for a while. This is the case, for example, of Air France and its SkyTeam partners, with the temporary abolition of the Sky Priority route, which has been in force again at Orly since September.

While the passenger journey can sometimes be a bit of a treasure hunt when faced with the new circuits that have been put in place in airport terminals, the collapse of air transport will at least have had one unexpected positive effect. Visit deserted airport lobbies have in some ways made it easier for passengers to keep their distance from each other! "While some facilities may now appear to be oversized, they actually help traffic flow more smoothly."OAG experts commented at a recent conference. The grouping of airlines in a few terminals, as is the case at Paris Orly and Roissy as well as in Berlin, London Heathrow and Singapore, is not causing congestion for the moment...

After a phase of reducing in-flight services, Air France and Lufthansa resumed a more traditional catering service in mid-July, offering a hot meal and breakfast tray on long-haul flights.

ServicesWhile lounges, shops and restaurants kept their doors closed for the first few months, they now welcome a limited number of visitors and only accept payment by card. The companies have also reduced the capacity of their loungesMany of these areas, so popular with business travellers, are only accessible to premium classes and the most loyal passengers.

These new health protocols encourage resumption of activity at the world's major hubs. While it is impossible to enter many countries, local authorities are once again authorising transfers from one flight to another at certain airports. Hubs such as Abu Dhabi, Amsterdam, Doha, Dubai, Frankfurt, Helsinki, Paris CDG, Seoul and Singapore have partly regained their hub function, with controlled routings, including passenger temperature checks.

The desire to limit contact is evident not only in airports, but also on all aircraft. As a result, airlines have had to re-evaluate their in-flight services. IATA initially recommended eliminating the sale of every second seat. An impossible gauge for obvious financial reasons.

A certain degree of normalisation took place over the summer. Most companies, for example, abandoned the systematically immobilise every other seat in economy class. However, some have retained this practice, such as Delta Air Lines and Southwest Airlines. While Southwest will lift the block on the sale of its middle seat at the end of October, Delta has confirmed that it will reduce the capacity of its aircraft by 25 % by keeping the middle seat free in economy class until the end of January 2021, following the recommendations of American medical experts. Only travellers from the same family or group can be grouped together. On the other hand, Business and First class are not affected by this measure because of the space already available on board.

During the flight, the has been partly simplified. The choice of meals in the cabin is now very limited, if not non-existent. "We could offer a pre-ordered meal service, particularly in high-contribution classes, but the crisis has also cut staff numbers catering providers who are often unable to provide 'à la carte' meals. The situation should improve with the resumption of traffic".says Jean-Marc Grazzini.

After a phase of significant reductions in on-board services, Air France as Lufthansa resumed in mid-July a more traditional catering serviceAir France has also reintroduced a champagne service as a welcome drink on these aircraft's forward classes, offering a hot meal tray and a breakfast tray on long-haul flights in their Premium classes. Air France has also reintroduced a champagne service as a welcome drink on the forward classes of these aircraft.

In the same vein, blankets, duvets and bolsters are once again being distributed on intercontinental routes, with some airlines even working on new models. new antiviral materials like Air Tahiti Nui. On the other hand, the paper press offered in the cabin has disappeared - it is still available digitally - and duty-free sales have been banned because of the handling involved.

Passengers are also advised to keep cabin movements to a minimum and to wear their mask at all times. Airlines such as Finnair and Malaysia Airlines are distributing health kits with masks and hydro-alcoholic gel to all passengers. Several airports such as Abu Dhabi, Frankfurt and Vienna have set up rapid testing stations.

For travellers anxious about finding themselves in cabins that are too crowded for their liking, the figures from IATA are reassuring. According to the association, the risk of transmission on board remains low. Out of more than 20 million cases of Covid-19 worldwide at the beginning of August, there were fewer than 50 known cases of transmission on board.