A Christmas truce for air transport

The arrival of the end-of-year festivities has led to a sharp increase in the number of flights and seats in the air transport sector, according to the latest analyses by consultants OAG. But like any truce, it is likely to be short-lived.
A long winter for air transport in Europe (Helsinki airport - photo: LC)

Sounds like a Christmas present. According to consultant OAG, which analyses airlines' capacity on a week-by-week basis, the week of 21 December sees a the total number of seats available is close to 61 million. Either a increase over a week of 1,8%.

Such a figure had not been seen since the first week of August and brings the level of air capacity back to that of the end of March 2020. However, the total number of seats offered for sale is still 43% lower than at the end of January 2020.

Europe at the bottom of the table

But these figures are also misleading. L'North-East Asia (China/Korea/Japan), the Indian subcontinent and theCentral America find respectable levels. In these countries, capacity is down by "only" a third. 25% to 35% at the end of 2019.North-East Asia continues to represent the the world's largest market in terms of capacity. With a seat capacity of almost 19 million, the region has a market share of 31%.

On the other hand, Western Europe remains in turmoil. Seating capacity is always down nearly 65% compared with early 2020. Western Europe thus has the worst performance in the world. Worse still, the week of 21 December saw a fall of 1.4% compared with the previous week.

On the other hand, the Central and Eastern Europe posted growth of over 9.5% of the total number of seats offered. Compared with the start of 2020, capacity in this part of Europe is down by 45%.

However, OAG predicts a sharp fall in European supply over the coming weeks.. This analysis is based on the increasing number of reconfinements in Europe. But also on the suspension of air links with the United Kingdom.

For its part, theNorth America is doing relatively well. This performance is due to a certain consistency in passenger traffic on domestic markets in the United States, Canada and Mexico.

All theAfrica posted an increase in its supply/seats for the week of 21 December. The exception was southern Africa, where supply fell by more than 9%.

Seat capacity by region in 2020

Good performance for France

By analysing the figures country by country, OAG notes that no Western European country is now in the top 10 in terms of seat capacity.. Russia, however, occupies 7thth position. Once again, this figure is explained by the importance of domestic lines.

In twelfth place in the OAG rankings, the France is an exception in Western Europe. With With 913,000 seats, France saw its air capacity increase by 15.1% from one week to the next.

Total seat capacity is therefore half of what it was at the start of 2020.. As a result, France has overtaken Spain and the United Kingdom. But in terms of capacity, it now ranks behind Thailand and even...Vietnam.