LEuropean Travel Commission (ETC) regularly analyses market trends and developments. However, its latest bulletin, published a dozen days ago, is more optimistic. The ETC analyses that in 2021, high vaccination coverage in Europe, the EU's Covid-19 digital certificate and the easing of travel restrictions have already helped to kick-start a recovery in tourism. Admittedly, Europe has recorded a 62 % drop in tourist arrivals in 2021 compared with 2019. La Croatia (-37 %), France (-39 %) and Monaco (-40 %) were exceptions.. The three countries recorded the smallest falls among European countries.
2022 will largely erase the decline in tourism of previous years
However, the Omicron variant at the end of last year played spoilsport. It thwarted the acceleration of the recovery seen until autumn 2021. The spread of the virus has led to a series of new travel restrictions. ETC estimates that the first quarter of 2022 will be heavily impacted.
However, the outlook for 2022 remains positive, according to ETC. Qnow estimates that travel demand in 2022 should be only 20 % below pre-pandemic levels. The majority of the recovery would come from the demand for domestic and intra-European travel. Domestic travel expected to exceed pre-pandemic peaks in 2022 while intra-European travel is expected to remain 35% lower in volume terms to what they were in 2019. Lnternational travel as a whole (short- and long-haul) will not exceed its 2019 performance until 2024. A time perspective that would also apply to business travel.
On long-haul markets, ETC believes that European tourism should benefit from the reopening of borders between North America and Europe, and that travel volumes should very quickly return to pre-pandemic levels. However, Asia will still be missing out, with the absence of major markets such as China and Japan. The ETC believes that long-haul traffic will still be 48% lower in 2022 than in 2019..
Council of Europe to ease restrictions on 1 March
One positive development, however, is the recent recommendation by the Council of Europe to facilitate travel by non-Europeans. On Tuesday 22 February, the Council adopted an updated recommendation on the temporary restriction of non-essential travel to the EU. Covid-19 restrictions should be applied taking into account both the situation in the third country and the status of the individual.
EU Member States should therefore authorise non-essential travel for vaccinated people. This would apply to people who have received a vaccine approved by the EU or WHO. People cured of Covid could also stay in the EU. However, some of these travellers may need to undergo a PCR test before departure.. The measure would apply in particular to those without an EU-approved vaccine. They could also be subject to a short quarantine.
The Council of Europe believes that the increase in the vaccination rate and the number of people who have received a booster dose are now changing the situation. As is the growing number of certificates issued by third countries recognised as equivalent to the EU digital certificate. This new recommendation will apply from 1 January 2010.er March 2022. And give the travel industry a serious boost. Even if new uncertainties loom on the horizon with the tensions between Russia and Ukraine.
