Central and West Africa, champion of air recovery in 2022

As the year draws to a close, aviation consultancy OAG has analysed air capacity for 2022. The first piece of good news. Last year, global capacity calculated in terms of airline seats jumped by just over 30% compared with 2021. And by 47.4% compared with 2020. This analysis confirms the estimates of the International Airline Association and the World Airports Council.

Still fewer seats than in 2019 as a whole

However, if we compare the figures for 2022 with those for 2019, we see that seat capacity is still lower than it was in 2019. OAG found 4.74 billion seats available last year. By the end of December 2019 had reached 5.77 billion seats. The billion shortfall corresponds to a deficit of almost 18 % compared to the 2019 level. OAG notes, however, that this difference narrowed in the second half of the year, to between 13 and 15 %.

Four regions are the big winners in 2022, with supply now higher than in 2019. The overall champion for 2022 was Central and West Africa. Seat capacity in the region rose by 9.7% compared with 2019. In second place was Central Asia, with growth of 7.2%, followed by Central America and Upper South America (Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Surinam and Venezuela), with growth in seats of 5.9% each compared with 2019.

In contrast, the Asian continent continued to record the weakest rebound in air capacity in 2022. South-East Asia remained at -35.6% and North-East Asia at -27.7%. This situation is due to the slow reopening of borders, the most recent of which is China. Only the Indian sub-continent will have fared better, with seat capacity just 5.9% lower than in 2019.

Outside Asia, Southern Africa remains well below its pre-Covid capacity. Capacity is down by 33.9% compared with 2019, a result due to the collapse of air traffic in South Africa, with the bankruptcy of South African Airways in 2020. The airline resumed its flights, but with an extremely truncated network and no intercontinental connections... Other regions particularly affected: Oceania, down 25.5% on 2019, and Central and Eastern Europe. With 22.2% fewer seats than in 2019, the region is paying a heavy price for the war between Russia and Ukraine.

Among the regions that had a relatively favourable year was North Africa, where seat capacity at the end of 2022 was only 8.1% lower than in 2019. North America was also down by 8.6%. In this semi-continent, air capacity was favourably influenced by the resilience of domestic and international traffic with the United States (-7.2%) and the very strong growth in capacity with Mexico (+10%).

It should be noted that seat capacity in the Middle East is still more than 15% lower than before Covid.

Western Europe in mixed fortunes

On theWestern EuropeThe recovery was very strong in 2022. Compared with 2021, capacity in terms of seats rose by 76.2%. This is the strongest growth for the year, along with South-East Asia.

However, air capacity is still 16.6% below 2019 levels. Soaring energy prices and high inflation are one factor in this sluggish recovery. Above all, difficulties in recruiting staff have forced both airlines and airports to impose limits on supply growth.

Mediterranean Europe recorded the best performances. Seat capacity with Spain was down 8.2% on 2019, and with Italy down 10.3%. France did slightly better than average, with a 15.6% drop in capacity/seats.

Germany, on the other hand, is the most depressed European market. Airline capacity is still a third lower than forecast for 2019. This is due to a very sharp decline in the domestic market in Germany. The recovery has also been sluggish in the United Kingdom. Air capacity is still more than 20% lower than it was before Covid and... the Brexit!

In 2023, the reopening of China should finally boost the offer in Asia, Oceania and also the Middle East. While Western Europe and North America should see the Covid parenthesis come to a definitive close...