After the euphoria of the reopening of China to the rest of the world at the start of the year, the time has come for uncertainty and doubt. That's right, air traffic between China and Europe, while picking up again, is still much lower than in the past. initial estimates of the post-opening period...
The consultancy OAG, which analyses seat capacity worldwide, indicates that the number of seats offered between China and the rest of the world will represent in April 2023 only 37% of the April 2019 offer. Or 3.05 million seats in 2023 compared with 8.35 million in 2019. As a result, international traffic will account for only 4.2% of total seat capacity in 2023. This share rose to 12.4% in 2019!
According to another consultant, ForwardKeys, seat capacity on the Europe-China route 73% less than in 2019 on direct routes. And it also remains 76% lower than in 2019 on routes via a transit airport. According to Nancy Dai, ForwardKeys' China expert, supply is even 82% lower between France and China.
In fact, there is still a certain amount of nervousness in European aviation circles. For air traffic between Europe and China is now affected by a veritable power imbalance. Which favours Chinese airlines above all. In fact, during the years when international air traffic was closed, the latter maintained all their operational capacities.
Chinese airlines have kept most of their wide-body aircraft and their staff.. Less than a fifth of China's fleet of wide-body aircraft (around 500 planes) is in storage, explained the American firm McKinsey in January, using data from Cirium. Most of these aircraft remain active on domestic routes.
Chinese airlines have also retained most of their pilots and cabin crew. Last but not least, Air China, China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines, for their part, have received generous financial aid from the State..
As for Chinese airports, they kept around 90 % of their employees. Chinese transport was therefore ready for a quick recovery.
Distortion of competition
In Europe on the other hand, airlines are still struggling with capacity constraints and staff shortages. A situation exacerbated by the boom in traffic forecast for 2022. Added to this is the Ukrainian conflict. This effectively puts European airlines in a weak position. Prohibited from overflying Russian territory, this means longer journey times by two to three hours on average. This means higher fuel and aircraft turnaround costs.
This is what Nancy Dai from ForwardKeys analysed during a webinar: " Chinese airlines drive up seat capacity to EuropeThis is because European airlines face a major obstacle: much longer flights due to the closure of Russian airspace, while Chinese airlines can still use this airspace. In addition, some European airlines are facing staff shortages, strikes and hub airport constraints." .
In February, the CEO of Air France-KLM, Ben Smith, openly referred to this imbalance. He even called for regulate the Europe-China axis to avoid this distortion of competition. Except that neither the DGCA nor the European authorities can force Chinese carriers to use the same routes as their European counterparts.
Only the weapon of traffic rightsa real sword of Damocles. If the EU reduces access to Chinese airlines, Chinese civil aviation will do the same to European airlines.
France denounces the 2017 agreement with China
France is fighting for traffic rights. It has decided to renegotiate a very favourable open skies agreement. Adopted in 2017, it led to the arrival of a host of Chinese carriers on French soil, including Hainan Airlines. In total, summer 2019 saw 90 weekly rotations between France and China.
The French government is now negotiating on an ad hoc basis with its Chinese counterparts. 50 rotations are scheduled for this summer, with a 50/50 split. 25 rotations on the Chinese side, 25 on the French side, including 14 rotations for Air France. The national airline will offer two daily flightsone on Beijing, the other on Shanghai. A return to the 2017 agreement is not on the agenda as long as Russian territory remains off-limits to Western carriers. This is likely to be the case for some time to come, if not for several years...
In a recent interview with Usine Nouvelle magazine, the Chief Executive Officer of Air France, Anne Rigailsummed up the situation well. "We are not asking for a perfect balance. Chinese airlines do not have the capacity to operate three or four times as many rotations as we do while they continue to fly over Russian airspace. This is not a blocking position", she told the magazine.
The absence of Chinese tourists weighs in the balance
Finally, it is another factor that is not in favour of increasing the number of Europe-China routes. It is the absence of tourists. The proliferation of Europe-China air routes - and Paris-China in particular - was largely due to Chinese visitors, who filled the planes to an average of 70%. However, according to the Dragon Trail International institute, which analyses the behaviour of Chinese travellers, the number of tourists visiting Europe is falling. decrease of 69% in the second quarter of 2023 compared with 2019.
However, this volume of Chinese visitors is expected to rise to 50% of its pre-Covid level in the second half of the year. This hardly justifies a return to pre-Covid capacity. At least not before 2024.
There is, however, a note of hope. In its analysis, Dragon Trail International points out that France remains the seventh most popular destination in the world for the Chinese. And number one in Europe!
