Something is not right for European airlines flying to China. The wake-up call came at the beginning of August with the announcement by British Airways of the suspension of its London Heathrow-Beijing route on 26 October. The airline had resumed this route in June 2023 with four frequencies per week. It explained its decision by the fact that operating costs were too high due to the ban on overflying Russian territory. This extends the average flight time by two hours.. The obvious consequence is an increase in fuel consumption, estimated at 15%.
The carrier has indicated that this decision is "temporary" and will be reassessed in 2025. British Airways to keep routes to Shanghai and Hong Kong.
European airlines focus on Beijing and Shanghai
The British flag carrier is not alone in reviewing its network to China. A few weeks before BA, Virgin Atlantic said it was definitively suspending its London Heathrow-Shanghai routewhich it had operated for some 25 years. It was the carrier's last route in China after closing its service to Hong Kong in 2022.
Generally speaking, Western European airlines' flight schedules to China have been slimmed down. compared with the pre-Covid period. Several factors are affecting a more solid recovery in the Europe-China air route. In addition to theRussian baninclude weak recovery in Chinese tourism to Europe due to economic difficulties. As well as a climate of mistrust between the West and ChinaThis is reflected in lower business flows. The visa simplification for Westerners to travel to China had little influence on this development.
In terms of air transport, most Western European airlines have reduced their network to just Beijing and Shanghai in People's China.
Finnair and Lufthansa operated the largest number of routes to China before Covid. The Finnish airline used to land in Guangzhou, Chongqing, Nanjing, Beijing, Shanghai and Xian. It now only operatesa single route to Shanghai.
Lufthansa also operated a network of around ten lines to China before the Covid pandemic. The German carrier used to serve destinations that were unique for a European airline, such as Shenyang and Qingdao. This summer, Lufthansa is only landing at Beijing and Shanghai. Although it offers the largest seat capacity of any European airlinewith four daily flights - two each from Frankfurt and Munich.
Lufthansa CEO Carsten Spohr recently spoke of more routes in the future. But these are unlikely to materialise as long as Russian airspace remains closed.
As for Air France-KLM, the network has also been reduced to services to Beijing and Shanghai. The binomial has still not resumed services to Guangzhou, Chengdu, Hangzhou, Tianjin, Wuhan and Xian since the health crisis.
Chinese companies benefit
However, the closure of Russian airspace to Western airlines is not all bad news. In a recent study published at the beginning of August, aviation consultant OAG analysed the air traffic situation between China and Europe. It found that Chinese companies had significantly increased their presence. OAG indicates that Chinese airlines offered more than 7 million international seats in AugustThis represents an increase of 54% compared with the same month in 2023.
On a China/Western Europe axis, the number of summer season frequencies has risen from 6,568 flights in 2023 to 11,317 flights in 2024. An increase of 72.3% over one year. And an increase of 13.2% compared with summer 2019 (9,997 flights).
For this summer season, the number of frequencies operated by Chinese airlines per destination is even greater than 120% to 2023 for Istanbul, Madrid, Budapest and Paris. The French capital thus benefits from 1,065 frequencies with China, compared to 482 for the previous season.
However, there are a number of reasons for this, Paris still not back to its 2019 level. The number of frequencies remains 41.5% lower than in 2019. The French capital is the only European city to have fewer flights than in 2019.
Summer frequencies of Chinese airlines to Europe
New destinations in Europe
According to OAG, the Chinese carriers with the biggest increase in flights this summer are, Juneyao Airlines, Shanghai Airlines and Xiamen Airlines. These three carriers recorded an increase of more than 100% in their frequencies from one summer to the next. And even close to 200% for Juneyao. OAG reports that Juneyao has launched 254 flights to new destinations such as Athens, Brussels and Manchester. Shanghai Airlines has distinguished itself by becoming the first Chinese carrier to land at Marseille.
OAG also notes that the three Chinese giants, Air China, China Eastern and China SouthernThe number of flights has also risen sharply. Air China is offering 5,011 frequencies across Europe this summer (+7.3% compared to 2019 and +63.7% compared to 2023). With 2,075 frequencies, China Eastern offers 14.3% more frequencies than in 2019 and 83.6% more than in 2023. This includes the launch in September of flights between Venice and Shanghai. Last but not least, China Southern boosted its offer by 16.7% compared with 2019 and 83.8% compared with 2023, with a total of 1,917 frequencies.
It now remains to be seen whether the market will be able to absorb this enormous Chinese air capacity. Nothing is less certain in the current geopolitical and economic context.
