2025 could be less glamorous than expected for airlines. This is the prediction now being made by the International Air Transport Association (IATA). The association, through the voice of its outspoken Director General Willie Walsh, expects that more serious supply chain problems once again affect airline performance in 2025. In its crystal ball, IATA sees higher operating costs and limited growth.
IATA is not entirely wrong. Delays in the aircraft manufacturer's supply chain mean fewer aircraft delivered, as well as less ecological and therefore economic efficiency, with the life extension of more fuel-intensive aircraft. IATA has quantified this extra cost in a report.
The average age of the world fleet reached a record 14.8 years this yearThis represents a significant increase on the 1990-2024 average of 13.6 years. Aircraft deliveries have fallen sharply since peaking at 1,813 in 2018. Estimated deliveries for 2024 are 1,254 aircraft, representing a shortfall of 30 %. compared with forecasts at the start of the year. By 2025, deliveries should total 1,802, well below previous forecasts. The previous forecast was for 2,293 deliveries. Further downward revisions in 2025 are widely considered possible.
Fewer orders and more aircraft at a standstill
The order book (cumulative number of unfilled orders) for new aircraft reached 17,000 devices. Which, according to IATA, is a record. At the current rate of deliveries, it would take 14 years to fill it. That's more than double the average delay for the period 2013-2019. Before Covid, the delivery time was 6 years. However, the waiting time is expected to shorten as delivery rates increase.
(Photo: Luc Citrinot)
The number of "parked" aircraft represents 14 % of the total fleet. Let 5,000 devices of the 35,166 aircraft registered in December 2024. Although the situation has improved recently, the number of aircraft parked remains 4 points above pre-pandemic levels. This represents around 1,600 aircraft. More worryingly, almost 44% of aircraft at a standstill are due to faulty engines. This represents more than 700 devices. IATA estimates that the situation will continue until 2025.
" Supply chain issues are frustrating all airlines, with a triple impact on revenues, costs and environmental performance. Load factors are at record levels and there is no doubt that if we had more aircraft, they could be deployed profitably, which compromises our revenues. Meanwhile, the ageing fleet used by airlines has higher maintenance costs. It consumes more fuel and requires more capital to keep it flying. What's more, aircraft leasing rates have risen faster than interest rates. And this is due to competition between airlines to increase their capacity. "said Willie Walsh, Director General of IATA.
Air transport slower to decarbonise
IATA notes that this situation is partly responsible for two negative trends.
- Environmental efficiency remains unchanged between 2023 and 20240.23 litres/100 available tonne kilometres (ATK). This is a step back from the long-term trend (1990-2019) of annual improvements in energy efficiency of the order of 1.5 to 2.0 %.
- Exceptional demand for leased aircraft has pushed lease rates for single-aisle aircraft (Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 types) to 20%-30% levels higher than in 2019.
" The entire aviation sector is united in its commitment to achieving zero net carbon emissions by 2050. Airlines must bear the brunt of the burden to achieve this goal. Supply chain issues are a case in point. Manufacturers are letting their customers down. This has the direct effect of slow down the efforts made by airlines to limit their carbon emissions. If aircraft and engine manufacturers could sort out their problems and keep their promises, we would have a more fuel-efficient air fleet. "said Mr Walsh.
As for business passengers, they will have to fly on older, noisier aircraft.. And, what's more, probably pay for it...
