Is the Istanbul hub suffering?

The attack on Istanbul's Ataturk airport in June, followed by the failed coup attempt in Turkey in July, could seriously hinder the positioning of Turkish Airlines and its airport as a major European hub. The army's unsuccessful attempt to seize power led to the closure of the airport on 15 July and the cancellation of more than sixty flights. Since this incident followed the terrible attack in June, which killed more than forty people and injured 250, many passengers will now be avoiding the Turkish capital. Even though the hub resumed operations on 17 July and security at Ataturk has since been considerably stepped up. Concrete barriers now surround the entrances to the international and domestic terminals, while security guards and police - whose patrols have been stepped up - are permanently armed.

It is clear, however, that Istanbul has probably lost some of its appeal for many passengers, particularly transfer passengers. It is often forgotten in Western Europe, but in the space of a decade Istanbul airport has become one of Europe's major hubs. With almost 62 million passengers a year, the Turkish hub ranks eleventh among the world's largest airports and third among European airports, just behind London Heathrow and Paris CDG. It is certain that Istanbul will have overtaken Paris in terms of passenger traffic before the end of the decade.

Ataturk airport is being served this summer by 56 airlines linking the Turkish metropolis to 285 cities around the world. This represents nearly 19,500 aircraft movements and a seat capacity of 3.66 million over one month (reference June 2016). Of this total, the national airline takes the lion's share, with a market share of 76.8% of total seat capacity.

Istanbul's growing success is due to the power of the Turkish Airlines hub, which has modelled its expansion policy on those of its large Gulf State neighbours. The Turkish national airline serves 267 destinations, including more than forty within Turkey.

If we analyse the Turkish Airlines offer by continent, we can see that the Turkish airline is essentially positioned in a Europe/Asia niche. In Europe, the carrier offers a network on a par with the continent's other major carriers, connecting 151 European cities and destinations from Istanbul. Excluding the domestic network, 93 European destinations are linked by direct flights to Istanbul. In terms of frequencies, Europe (excluding Turkey) represents 38% of the Turkish Airlines offer.

These cities have connections to 36 destinations in Asia, with a strong network in Central Asia (10 cities). Hanoi is the most recent destination, with two weekly non-stop flights and three weekly flights via Ho Chi Minh City. Outside Europe and Asia, Turkish Airlines also serves 55 cities in Africa and the Middle East, as well as 15 cities in the Americas, including Atlanta, Bogota, Miami and Panama this year.

Table 1- Top 10 Turkish Airlines routes by seat capacity (July 2016)

(Source: flightmapsAnalytics.com)

Table 2- Turkish Airlines monthly seat capacity between Istanbul and France (July 2016)

(Source: flightmapsAnalytics.com)