For the time being, the pessimism associated with soaring oil prices does not seem to be worrying the world's two aerospace giants, the American Boeing and the European Airbus, too much. Their business sector is in a healthier situation than that of the airlines. Faced with hundreds of airlines around the world, aircraft manufacturing has been rationalised around these two major centres, Boeing and Airbus. Gone, then, are the Americans Lockeed and McDonnel Douglas, the former definitively abandoning commercial aviation, the latter being absorbed by Boeing; ditto for competitors from the former Soviet Union, such as Ilyushin and Tupolev, who are struggling to find markets. The same goes for competitors from the former Soviet Union, such as Ilyushin and Tupolev, who are struggling to find new markets. The humiliation suffered by Ilyushin can be seen in the fact that it was eliminated outright in the call for tenders launched to renew the long-haul fleet of the Russian carrier Aeroflot.
This leaves only Airbus and Boeing in the medium and wide-body sector, i.e. aircraft with between 100 and 500 seats. And the two players, who are waging a fierce war for market share, see their future looking rather rosy.
An incredible expansion
The stakes are high. For despite the uncertainties caused by soaring oil prices, studies by the two manufacturers point to an incredible expansion in international air traffic. Supported by detailed studies, Airbus predicts that passenger traffic will continue to grow by an average of 4.9 % per year between now and 2026, while Boeing predicts a fairly similar growth rate of 5 %. According to Boeing, the number of passengers carried by 2026 should reach 6.8 billion. In terms of demand, Boeing estimates that the world fleet of aircraft with more than 100 seats will double from 18,500 to 36,500 between 2006 and 2026. Airbus, for its part, is a little less optimistic, estimating that this same fleet will reach nearly 33,000 aircraft by the same date.
This surge in traffic is based on two phenomena: the liberalisation of air traffic markets and the emergence of new world powers. With regard to the liberalisation of traffic conditions, over the last few years the world has seen a tremendous opening up of access conditions for airlines. The most spectacular of these is the open skies agreement between Europe and the United States, which came into force in March 2008 and has already led to an increase in the number of air routes between the two continents. Similar agreements are being negotiated in North Africa and South-East Asia.
Two different strategies
Another phenomenon is the emergence of a multi-hub world. South Africa, Brazil, China, the United Arab Emirates, India, Indonesia, Russia, the CIS countries and Vietnam will undoubtedly be the breeding grounds for global growth in air traffic. And this rise in power is already leading to fierce Airbus-Boeing battles to conquer China and Brazil. The Asia-Pacific region alone will account for more or less a third of all aircraft orders, i.e. more than 8,000 aircraft, worth an estimated $1,000 billion in absolute terms! According to Airbus, China will absorb more than 3,200 aircraft, while India's needs are estimated at around 1,000. Are these forecasts deliberately over-optimistic? It could be argued that soaring oil prices and public awareness of global warming could slow the growth of air transport over the next few decades. Here again, the two manufacturers have anticipated changes in passenger behaviour.
"In fact, the rise in the price of oil, combined with the concern to reduce the impact of air transport on global warming, is having a positive effect on aircraft manufacturers. They are forcing us to work on ever more efficient aircraft models, and therefore to meet the fleet renewal needs of airlines that want aircraft that consume less fuel", says Randy Tinseth, vice-president of marketing at Boeing Commercial Airplanes.
The aircraft developed in recent years are more comfortable, quieter and, above all, cleaner. The new generations of long-haul aircraft such as the Airbus A340-500 and the Boeing 777-200ER and 300ER incorporate composite materials that lighten the weight of the aircraft, making them less polluting. "The latest generation of aircraft have reduced paraffin consumption by 20 % over the last decade, including 5 % in 2005-2006 alone", Giovanni Bisignani, Director General of IATA, likes to repeat at conferences. A view shared by Tony Tyler, CEO of Cathay Pacific: "The fuel consumption performance of the Airbus A340-600 and the Boeing 777-300 is remarkable and perfectly matches the needs of our airline.
With regard to noise pollution, IATA states that the new generations of aircraft are 50 % to 60 % quieter than ten years ago. According to Boeing, the noise generated by its new models is equivalent to that of a road junction. Added to this is the comfort of the cabins. Higher ceilings with larger baggage compartments, mood lighting that varies according to the time of day, wider seats and rows, even in economy class - the seat is two to three centimetres wider! - thanks to a larger floor area.
Airbus and Boeing, on the other hand, have different ideas about the nature of the traffic, which explains their strategic differences in aircraft production. For Airbus, the world market will be concentrated around megacities that justify the use of very large aircraft. The European manufacturer's studies reveal that when the Boeing 747 was introduced in 1969, the world had four megacities with a combined total population of 43 million. Today, there are 26 cities with more than 10 million inhabitants, totalling 500 million people.
Gigantism according to airbus
Concentrating cultural, economic and tourist activities, these megacities encourage the concentration of air transport on hub airports. "Traffic between major cities is growing faster than average. 77 % of demand is now concentrated in around thirty major cities", explained Joost van der Heijden, Senior Marketing Director at Airbus, at a conference in Bangkok in 2007. The European manufacturer estimates that by 2015, 60 % of Europe-Asia traffic and 70 % of North America-Asia traffic will be hub-to-hub.
With this in mind, the company has been working on a very high-capacity aircraft, the Airbus A380, which is the only solution to the growth in traffic between megacities and the congestion of airport infrastructures. The giant's performance is impressive. The aircraft has an average capacity of 450 to 550 seats (with a version for 850 seats in very high density) and can cover a distance of 14,800 km, 2,000 km more than the Boeing 747-400.
Lighter composite materials accounting for 25 % of the new aircraft make it more fuel-efficient and therefore less polluting. Compared with the older Boeing 747 model, the Airbus A380 is half as noisy, has reduced paraffin consumption by 20 %, or three litres per passenger over 100 km (the equivalent of a small diesel-powered car) and carries 40 % more passengers. With 39 % more floor space than its rival, the Airbus A380 offers airlines great flexibility in terms of cabin layout. Of course, the idea of providing showers or a shop area has been abandoned, due to the need for cost-efficiency per square metre, but airlines have made an effort to offer exceptional comfort to first-class passengers. The A380 is an opportunity to overhaul our service in all our classes," explains Thierry Antinori, Vice President Sales at Lufthansa. And we hope to surprise our passengers in terms of comfort."
Singapore Airlines, the first airline in the world to fly the A380 to Australia since October 2007, took the opportunity to present its First Suite, a truly private cabin for passengers, with sliding doors and louvres. The First Suite is largely inspired by a ship's cabin, with wooden panelling, a wardrobe and the possibility of converting the bed - a double bed if necessary! - into two armchairs for an intimate dinner or business meeting.
The private suite in first class seems to have become a given. Emirates, which is bringing its first A380s into service this year, will be offering a private suite - already in service on Airbus A340-500s and some Boeing 777s. Australia's Qantas, which is due to fly its first A380 in August, recently unveiled its cabin concept: private suites for first class; a new seat-bed and private lounge in business class; the introduction of a premium economy class and self-service bars in economy class.
Air France, British Airways, Lufthansa and Virgin Atlantic will be the European spokespeople for this aircraft. Lufthansa has already set up dedicated double-level waiting areas in Frankfurt. The second floor has been converted into a lounge for high-contribution passengers with a direct access gangway. However, Air France will be the first European airline to receive this aircraft, which is due to be introduced on North Atlantic routes. In 2005, Virgin Atlantic's charismatic CEO Richard Branson revealed to the media his vision of service on board his A380s: gym and casino areas in all classes, treatment areas and 35 suites with beds for two in Upper Class. The aircraft are due to enter service in 2010.
Boeing has hit back at Airbus by officially launching construction of the Boeing B747-8. "We are positioned in this niche between the Boeing 777-300 with its 365 seats and the Airbus A380 with its 555 seats. Our new model will have a capacity of 400 to 500 seats", explains Randy Tinseth. The aircraft will be particularly environmentally friendly. Its load is expected to be 10 % less than that of the Airbus 380, helping to reduce paraffin consumption per passenger by 11 %. Boeing has calculated that its B747-8 should help to reduce the cost of a flight by 19 % compared with its European competitor. The aircraft will also incorporate all the latest technological advances that Boeing is applying to its new flagship, the Boeing 787 Dreamliner.
It is currently one of the biggest success stories in the recent aviation industry. Between its commercial launch in 2004 and the end of March 2008, the aircraft took 896 orders. Suffering from a number of delivery delays (like the Airbus A380), the Dreamliner is due to begin commercial operations in 2009. For Boeing, the aircraft reflects the idea that point-to-point routes - such as Nice-Dubai or Berlin-Washington - will be the lifeblood of air transport growth. The Boeing 787 has a theoretical capacity of 210 to 330 passengers and can cover up to 1,5700 km non-stop, roughly the same distance as a Paris-Melbourne flight. A simplified technological design, the use of composite materials and improved aerodynamics mean that the cost per seat/passenger per mile is 10 % lower than on similar aircraft.
Comfort and energy savings
On board, the Boeing 787 hopes to make passengers dream as they did before the development of mass aviation. The aircraft's meticulous design evokes the warm curves of the 1950s. Large windows, light that changes colour according to the time zone, large baggage compartments, bar areas... the cabin will give passengers a feeling of space. The atmosphere will also be improved, with a higher level of humidity that should dispel the feeling of dryness experienced by some passengers, and pressurised air equivalent to an altitude of 1,800 metres. Some fifty airlines have already ordered the aircraft. While All Nippon Airways will be the first to launch the Boeing 787 at the end of 2009, the Dreamliner will fly in Europe under the colours of Aeroflot, Air Berlin, Blue Panorama (Italy), British Airways, Icelandair, LOT, TUI and Virgin Atlantic.
Following the success of the Boeing 787, Airbus has gone back on the offensive with a new model, the A350. It will carry between 270 and 350 passengers and is due to start flying in 2013. According to Airbus management, it should compete not only with the B787 but also with the B777, which will be twenty years old by then. The market has reacted positively, with 367 orders from some fifteen airlines booked by the end of April. Here again, the credo is passenger comfort and energy savings. Composite materials will account for 52 % of its infrastructure, notably the all-carbon wings, with steel accounting for only 7 % of the aircraft's components. The aircraft will be 30 % more fuel efficient than its predecessors. The cabin will also stand out for its impression of space, with its giant windows. Passengers will have their heads in the stars.
