What do we know about the coronavirus detected in China, and what remains to be defined?
Philippe Guibert - Since 30th Decemberthe Chinese authorities to Wuhan have noted an increase in the number of cases of pneumonia and respiratory infections, with clustered cases of people allegedly visiting the same market. The number of cases has risen in recent days, and an attempt has been made to identify the agent responsible. After eliminating the obvious diagnoses, the authorities have detected a new virusfamily of coronavirus - so named because of the crown shape that can be seen under the microscope. These are viruses with which we are very familiar, as they are responsible for very common infections such as colds and flu during the winter season in our latitudes, but they are also responsible for serious lung infections. This reminds us all of what we observed in 2002-2003 with the SARSSevere Acute Respiratory Syndrome, which was linked to a new coronavirus that had emerged in China before spreading across the planet from Hong Kong. A virus from the same family was identified a few days ago. We are seeing an increase in cases linked to people who have frequented this market, but also to people who have contaminated each other, which is known as human-to-human transmissionWe had no confirmation of this until Monday. Now we have proof that an infected person can transmit the disease to someone who is not infected. This human-to-human transmission has also been observed with healthcare workers, doctors and nurses. These are features that have already been noted in other coronavirus epidemics, such as SARS and MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome). We are therefore faced with a new agent, which is starting to spread, with cases in Beijing, Shenzen and neighbouring countries. The situation is evolving rapidly, which is why theWHO meets Wednesday [on 22 January], which could conclude that there is a public health emergency of international concern. This would mean that all countries would have to put in place proportionate measures, including border controls, the preparation of hospitals or services capable of receiving suspected patients, isolation or even quarantine, and the introduction of diagnostic resources to confirm or rule out cases.
The China of 2020 is not the China of 2002
Should the memory of SARS encourage panic, or serve as a reminder that we have learnt the lessons of the past and taken the necessary measures?
Philippe Guibert - There is no reason to panic. The China of 2020 is not the China of 2002. What's more, in just a few days, not only have the relevant authorities been able toidentify this coronavirus and its entire genetic sequenceand share it with the international scientific community. The means of diagnosis, treatment and communication are not at all the same. We have learnt the lessons of the past, not only in China but also internationally. In 2005, a new version of the international health regulations has been set up to encourage countries to be better prepared for this kind of event. As to whether this event will resemble the SARSIt's too early to say. It's too early: we still don't know the incubation period, the contagiousness profile, the exact transmission... There is no way of knowing whether or not the disease will spread. no reason to panic today. On the other hand, we need to be extremely vigilantThese include: avoiding places like markets with dead animals, practising impeccable hand hygiene, avoiding contact with sick people, and seeking immediate medical attention if you develop symptoms, especially if you have just returned from a trip to Wuhan or China. For all that, no one is recommending cancelling trips to China today.
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Are companies prepared?
Philippe Guibert - It's a little early to say, but companies have learnt from previous crises by putting in place preparedness, communication and information plans, as well as tools for locating travellers and providing care and assistance.
Is the country in which this coronavirus has been detected, and in particular the approach of the Chinese New Year, an aggravating factor?
Philippe Guibert - The Chinese New Year and the spring festivities that follow are indeed a factor in the spread of disease. It's a real question: will there be a multiplier effect, or will the screening, temperature-taking and isolation measures be such as to stop any spread in China or beyond? For the moment, this is totally speculative. Especially as people travel a lot in Asia and may have been unknowingly contaminated, travel and develop symptoms in the days that follow. So we can expect more cases in other countries in the region, and even beyond. Wuhan airport is connected by direct flight to three airports in the United States. So there is a potential for regional and international spread, as we saw with SARS in 2003.
rumours circulate faster than viruses
Should business trips to China be cancelled?
Philippe Guibert - There is no need to cancel trips or meetings, as long as you follow common sense measures. If you're travelling to China for business reasons, you should avoid the small markets in question anyway, as they are generally...
Do you think the measures adopted at certain airports are appropriate?
Philippe Guibert - Yes, of course. Moreover, the cases detected in Bangkok and Incheon were thanks to the body temperature detection portals. A state cannot stand idly by when faced with this kind of pathology.
What lessons can we learn from previous crises?
We have learned the importance of theinformation. The notion of panic is not justified, and can be motivated by a lack of information, or access to false, unverified information. The challenge is to share factual information the most quickly and the most often possible. It is on the basis of this factual information that individuals can make the right decisions, and that managers can base their response. This is a key element, because as we know, rumours circulate faster than viruses...
