Closing the Covid chapter in the airline offer once and for all. This is what FCM Consultinga major player in travel management. The company is a partner to thousands of national and multinational organisations, including many of the major national brands in the CAC 40. Finally, the increase in air capacity should help to offset the imbalance between supply and demand, contributing to a revival in travel - particularly business travel..
In its latest report for the 3rd quarter 2023, FCM Consulting indicates that the trend observed in the first half of 2023 has certainly been maintained. The Group confirms the slowdown in the rapid growth of travel from the end of 2021. Although travel demand is up and positive, the increases were moderate in the third quarter.
Seat capacity to improve by 2024
But FCM Consulting is optimistic for the start of 2024. Analyses show that the 1st quarter of next year should see an increase of 71.8 million (+5.3 %) additional seats (both domestic and international) compared with the same period in 2019. The forecast for seat volume at the end of 2023 is -2.2 % compared with 2019.
Africa is expected to lead the way with a 14 % increase in seat capacity. The Middle East will also see double-digit growth (+11 %). Growth will be strong in Latin and North America (+8%) and Asia (+7%). It will simply remain stable in Oceania. The only fly in the ointment: Europe, with a 2% decline in seat capacity. This phenomenon can be explained by a transferring capacity to rail.
Forecasts for the number of international seats in the first half of the year 2024 show a decline of -4.2 % compared with 2019. For the FranceFCM Consulting estimates that seat capacity in the first half of 2024 should be one point lower than in 2019. This is a more favourable trend than in the United Kingdom or Germany. In the former, seat capacity is expected to be 3% lower than in 2019, and in the latter 15% lower.
Until now, one of the biggest obstacles to recovery has been the lack of capacity and competition in the airline industry. Conditions are gradually improving, which should benefit travellers during 2024. However, there is still a question mark over the lack of seats available on flights between Australia and Europe, via the Middle East.
However, FCM Consulting believes that the slowdown in inflation around the world should result in lower increases in air fares. These should increase from 3 % to 7 % in 2024according to current forecasts.
Paris, second most expensive city in Europe for corporate hotel rates
In the accommodation sector, hotel occupancy rates reached an average of 68% per month in 2023. Over the last six months, average daily room rates (ARR) for businesses have stabilised. In the case of Latin America, they have even fallen slightly.
The ARR for the third quarter of 2023 compared with 2022 in North America was USD 250. It was USD 160 in Australia/New Zealand and USD 194 in Europe. It was USD 173 in Asia, USD 203 in the Middle East/Africa and USD 128 in Latin America.
Visit EuropeHowever, ARR increased by 19% year-on-year. London and Paris are the two most expensive cities on the continentwith an average corporate tariff of 306 US$ for the former and 296 US$ for the latter.
Concerning car hireThe global average daily rate (ADR) increased by 4% between January and September 2023 compared with 2022. Rate increases are expected to stabilise in a range of 2% to 3% in 2024.
Steve Norris, Managing Director EMEA said: " This continued growth in the travel industry as a whole is very encouraging.. This is something we were all counting on. Although the number of seats in Europe fell in the last quarter, we hope that this decline is temporary and that the situation will soon improve.
