According to OAG, air capacity is set to rise in 2022

Air traffic continues to recover, analyses the consultant OAGwhich works on airline seat capacity. These ended up 2021 down 35% compared with December 2019. That's 5.7 billion seats compared with 8.7 billion at the end of 2019. On the other hand, the recovery is confirmed, with a sharp increase in capacity in the second half of last year. La reopening of European Union countries in May/June, followed by the United States, Canada, the Gulf States, Singapore and Thailand were reflected in the offer.

For early 2022, OAG indicates that the variant Omicron is still not reflected in air carrier activity. Even though the consultant believes that the offer should ease off in the short term, or even decline. For the whole of January, OAG has calculated that there are over 366 million seats available, compared with 246.5 million a year ago.. However, this figure does not take into account last-minute cancellations. Cancellations are on the increase with the spread of the Omicron variant among airline staff.

Europe affected by Omicron

If we compare the first week of January 2022 with that of January 2020, the best performing countries in terms of capacity/seat capacity are Mexico (+5.4%), Russia (-1.1%) and Spain (-7.1%). With a 27.3% decline in seat capacity, France is doing slightly better than Germany or the UK. But its performance is much worse than the world average of -22.2% (January 2022/2020). Europe remains one of the regions most affected by the fall in capacity at the start of the year.. This is due to the closure of borders as a result of the Omicron variant.

Only North-East Asia is doing less well with a 31.1% drop in capacity at the Japan and 55.6% from the Korea. This is the worst performance of any country in the world.

If, on the other hand, we look at the evolution of compared with the first week of January 2021, there has been a significant recovery. Europe is even experiencing the most spectacular increases in its capacity. Germany led the way at +183.2%, the UK at +176.2% and Spain at +136%. France also recorded growth in the number of seats, but to a lesser extent. Air capacity in France up 88.2% compared with the beginning of 2021.

Elsewhere in the world, Singapore posted the best year-on-year performance with 125.1% of additional capacity in the first week of January. However, compared with January 2020, OAG still sees a fall of almost 72% in air services to and from the Isle of Man.

Change in overall seat capacity compared to the week of 03/01/2022

(Source: OAG)

For OAG, the Omicron effect could be felt in February. But it should be short-lived, according to the schedules provided by the airlines. For February 2022, the carriers' schedules forecast a capacity of 351.7 million seats, slightly less than in January. But it includes a 28-day month. On the other hand, capacity should jump in March, with 406.2 million seats scheduled.

(Source: OAG)