From annual growth of close to 5 % in recent years, the Asian trade show industry is set to undergo a fall of 75 % in 2020. According to a study conducted by Business Strategies Group (BSG) on behalf of UFI, the Global Association of the Exhibition Industry, net floor space sold is set to fall from 24.5 million m2 in 2019 to 6.8 million m2 in 2020. Or perhaps even less if China, the continent's biggest market, is hit by a new wave of the pandemic between now and the end of the year.
The Covid-19 effect is significant in the 17 markets studied by BSG, with, among other things, -65 % of space sold in China, -75 % in Japan and even -90 % in Hong Kong and SingaporeThis is due to the more international dimension of the events organised in these destinations. Kai Hattendorf, Managing Director of UFI, said: " Our industry is currently going through the most difficult crisis in its history. A full recovery is not expected before 2022 or 2023. "
By 2021, the downturn should already be less severe for the Asia-Pacific region. BSG forecasts levels between 50 % and 60 % of what they were in 2019. In 2021, China should reach between 70 % and 75 % of the net space sold in 2019, and Japan between 40 % and 50 %, with many sites reserved for the Tokyo Olympics postponed until next year.
" Forecasts for 2021 are particularly difficult because of the long list of potential unknownsHowever, notes Mark Cochrane, UFI Regional Director for Asia/Pacific and Managing Director of BSG. These include possible waves of new infections in any market, the timing and severity of government restrictions, travel restrictions and a number of other factors. "
Last July, the UFI estimated that worldwide sales of 60 % the contraction of the exhibition sector in 2020. According to the association's Global Exhibitions Barometer, revenues in the sector are expected to decline by - 44% compared to 2019 in Europe and North AmericaThe UFI estimates that the number of trade fairs in the world fell by 2.4 billion euros, by -39% in Asia-Pacific, by -33% in Central and South America and by -31% in the Middle East and Africa. At the same time, while trade fairs enable companies to develop their activities, UFI estimates that 260 billion euros worth of contracts remain unsigned due to this lack of exhibitions.
According to the half-yearly survey unveiled by the association in July, the majority of companies surveyed expected local and national exhibitions to pick up again in the second half of 2020, before international exhibitions in 2021. " While the sector remains confident in its ability to bounce back, everyone is aware that the crisis will lead to major changes in the way exhibitions are produced, in particular with a push towards more digital elements before, during and between events" says Kai Hattendorf. While the value of meetings between professionals is still essential, the role of digital technology is likely to increase in the years to come, even if opinions differ on this point. To the question "Will virtual events replace physical events? 80 % of European companies disagreed, but only 50 % in North America.
