But the days of double-digit growth are over. After the stagnation that followed the Asian financial crisis of 1997, the current downturn is the main subject of concern not only for the newspapers, but also for the Thai authorities. In April, the Bank of Thailand forecast a decline in GDP of between 1.5 % and 3.5 % for 2009, and a fall in the volume of exports from 17.5 % to 20.5 %. Looking ahead, we can only speculate on the shape of the curve that will mark the end of the crisis. Will it be V-shaped, L-shaped, U-shaped or W-shaped?
In this rollercoaster scenario, Europe - and France in particular - plays only a secondary role. There is not a single European country among the top ten exporters of Thai products, with neighbours and other major players in the Asia-Pacific region following behind the American leader. France is Thailand's fourth largest European supplier behind Germany, the UK and Italy, with a market share of just 0.83 %. Eager to see this figure rise, in March 2009 the Economic Mission in Bangkok drew up a list of the most promising sectors for the coming years: telecommunications, petrochemicals, energy and above all transport, with the construction of new metro lines in Bangkok and the project to double the tracks on the rail network. The aviation sector is also targeted, with the Thai Airways equipment plan, the extension of Suvarnabhumi airport and the transformation of the former international airport, Don Muang, into an aviation maintenance free zone.
However, the "traditional" sectors of excellence in the Thai economy continue to offer opportunities. Alongside the flagship products of this "workshop country" (automobiles, electronic goods, textiles, etc.), the primary sector still represents a fundamental asset for Thailand, the world's leading exporter of rice, canned tuna and processed prawns. The same is true of tourism, with nearly 15 million visitors in 2007, directly generating revenue equal to 7 % of GDP, and a positioning that is increasingly focused on the top end of the market, as well as on niche markets such as ecotourism, golf and wellness and health tourism. Recent political upheavals have, however, somewhat blurred the image of a destination hitherto regarded as one of the safest and most stable in the world.
