Brexit: what impact will it have on Franco-British skies?

2017 was a record year for air travel between France and the UK, with new routes opening between the two countries. Is this the swan song or does Britain still hold its appeal for French businessmen?
London Heathrow
Air traffic between France and Great Britain largely resisted the prospect of Brexit in 2017

The planned withdrawal of the Great Britain of the European Union in March 2019 - two years after officially initiating the procedure for leaving the EU - could have resulted in a slowdown in passenger numbers on air routes between France and the UK. On the contrary, according to statistics from the British Civil Aviation Authority2017 was a record year for the UK airline industry. International passenger traffic rose by 7,4% 228.8 million passengers last year. The European Union segment alone generated traffic of 154.47 million passengers (+8% compared with 2016).

Between Great Britain and France, the total number of passengers on scheduled services jumped by 7%, topping the twelve million passenger mark last year. If we include the passenger traffic of Basel-Mulhouse (counted under the Switzerland segment), we are even well over the 13 million passenger mark, with traffic at Basel-Mulhouse (seven routes to the UK) generating 935,000 passengers in 2017, including 737,000 to London airports.

In 2017, there were 170 scheduled flights between some forty French cities and twenty or so British airports, representing more than 1,000 flights a week and an average of 148,000 seats a week. Virtually all the major French cities are linked to at least London, with the exception of Lille - but Eurostar provides this - and Strasbourg, which is only linked by two weekly frequencies operated by the low-cost airline Ryanair. As for traffic to and from LondonThe routes serving Heathrow and Gatwick are also frequented by transfer passengers on long-haul flights. According to 2016 statistics from the British Tourist Board, the French generated 4 million visits, 850,000 of which were for business reasons, representing a market share of just over 21%.

Passenger traffic between Paris and London in 2016 and 2017

The segment Paris-London remains unsurprisingly the leading air market between the two countries. Last year it accounted for 2.24 million passengers, a modest increase of 2.1%, supported mainly by connecting routes. There was a Traffic collapse at London City Airport (-66%), perhaps one of the first effects of Brexit with the drop in business traffic to the City.

Traffic between Paris and UK regional airports in 2017

From Paris, Manchester - considered more as a business destination, particularly with its strong MICE activity - is the second largest market in terms of passenger numbers, with 629,000 passengers last year (+11%), followed by BirminghamParis-Charles de Gaulle, another major business destination in France, grew by 10.2% with 440,000 passengers departing from CDG and Orly. Paris-Edinburgh (CDG and Orly) recorded 411,000 passengers (+10.2%). A tourist destination, Edinburgh is also frequented by business customers, working in particular with the Scottish regional government. On the other hand, the Paris-Aberdeen lost 14% of passengers over the year, once again falling below the 100,000 mark for the year. This decline is linked to the slowdown in drilling activity in the North Sea.

Main air routes in 2017 between London and the French regions (including Basel-Mulhouse)

From London to the French regions, Lyon, Toulouse, Bordeaux and Basel/Mulhouse have strong business activity. Lyon generated 550,000 passengers, followed by Toulouse with just under 500,000, while Bordeaux recorded 464,000 passengers to London airports. From region to region, while Nice continues to attract leisure customers from the English provinces, the most important business routes are from Basel-Mulhouse to Edinburgh and Manchester, and from Lyon to Manchester.