Predictions a slowdown in air demand between Europe and the United States are confirmed week after week. And after the "bravado" of a number of airlines claiming at the beginning of May that they had not seen a drop in demand, most are now discreetly adjusting their frequencies. Airline consultant OAG notes that in June, seat capacity between the UK and the USA fell by 2.8%.. There is likely to be a similar downward trend in other European markets.
The deterioration in trade relations and the image of the United States are also seen as a factor of adjustment by a number of airlines facing a shortage of new aircraft.
Five years on, the shortages of spare parts and their delivery that occurred during the Covid period have still not been resolved. Airlines are therefore having to juggle frequencies and routes. And the weakening of passenger demand is making it possible to play on capacity to the United States.
European companies more exposed than American ones
Nonetheless, weaker demand is not felt in the same way by all carriers. Indeed, if American airlines offer the largest seat capacity in absolute terms (American, Delta and United offering between 7.2 and 9.7 million seats) on the transatlantic route, they are nevertheless less exposed a drop in traffic.
These are the findings of OAG, which analysed the offer on the transatlantic route this summer. North Atlantic market share of the total capacity of North American carriers does not exceed the 3.6%. Only Air Canada's transatlantic capacity exceeds 8% of its total seat capacity. This is also the result of a shift in European demand from the United States to this country.
On the other hand, according to OAG's figures, European airlines are more exposed. Virgin Atlantic breaks the ceiling with 36.6% of its seat capacity allocated to its North Atlantic routes. The British company is followed by Aer Lingus with 11.1%, British Airways with 9%, Air France with 7.1% and Lufthansa with 5.6%..
Top airlines on the North Atlantic summer 2025
| Airlines | Number of seats on the North Atlantic | North Atlantic's share of total seat capacity |
| United Airlines | 9,715,980 | 3,6% |
| Delta Airlines | 9,679,887 | 3,2% |
| American Airlines | 7,187,087 | 2,1% |
| British Airways | 6,235,603 | 9,0% |
| Air Canada | 5,806,125 | 8,4% |
| Lufthansa | 5,095,124 | 5,6% |
| Air France | 4,511,616 | 7,1% |
| Virgin Atlantic | 3,374,446 | 36,6% |
| Turkish Airlines | 3,298,218 | 3,1% |
| KLM | 2,454,855 | 4,8% |
| Aer Lingus | 2,446,258 | 11,1% |
| Iberia | 1,475,652 | 3,4% |
| Swiss | 1,463,286 | 4,8% |
| TAP Air Portugal | 1,229,916 | 4,9% |
Only temporary reductions in frequency?
Many European airlines have carried out frequency adjustments to the United States. British Airways revised its programme, citing fleet problems. The airline had to ground four Boeing 787s because the aircraft were equipped with faulty Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 engines. It has already reduced its frequencies from London Heathrow to San Diego. Houston and New Orleans will follow in October.. The company has also withdrawn from Dallas.
Lufthansa has transferred its Minneapolis flights to its long-haul low-cost subsidiary Discover Airlines.. At the same time, the route has become seasonal. Lufthansa is also planning to reduce its frequencies this winter from Frankfurt to Dallas-Fort Worth and Denver. Its subsidiary Swiss is reducing its flights on the Zurich-Chicago route. from two to one daily flight from 1er September.
Air France-KLM has also withdrawn frequencies on several routes. KLM has reduced the number of weekly flights on Boston and San Francisco from Amsterdam. Boston will see its frequencies reduced from 7 to 5 flights and San Francisco from 7 to 6 flights.
As for Iberia has decided to postpone the launch of its Madrid-Dallas flight until October.. The IATA timetables for winter 2025/2026 nevertheless include numerous frequency reinforcements on the North Atlantic. As on Paris-CDG- Orlando with Air France or Manchester-Atlanta with Virgin Atlantic.
