Consultancy firm PwC recently published its forecasts for hotel activity in Europe. Against a backdrop of strong economic growth in 2018, the European hotel industry is expected to perform well this year. PwC estimates that GDP per capita growth will be 4% worldwide and 2.2% in the Eurozone in 2018. That's some 5,000 billion dollars of additional wealth produced, which should translate into a rather promising year for European establishments against a backdrop of growth in tourism. Stimulated as much by intra-European business and leisure travel as by strong demand from the United States, China and Russia, the continent recorded 671 million international arrivals in 2017, an increase of 8 % compared with 2016.
The hotel industry is benefiting, especially as growth in the European hotel offer has been limited at the same time. So 2018 is shaping up to be an auspicious year. Growth in tourism should benefit almost every city in Europe. Among the cities expected to perform poorly in 2018 are Frankfurt, due to the absence of major international trade fairs this year, and Zurich, where hotel competition is intensifying. The former is expected to record a drop in revenue per available room (RevPAR) of 0.2% and the latter of -1.9%. In Berlin and Rome, revenue per room is expected to grow modestly in 2018, with RevPAR forecast to rise by 1.3% and 1.8% respectively.
On the other hand, other cities are expected to perform well. more dynamic. Leading the way are Porto, with an increase in revenue per available room of over 10%, as well as Lisbon and Prague, where RevPAR in the hotel sector is expected to rise by an average of 7%. A similar rise is expected in Amsterdam, with demand boosted by major events such as the World Web Congress.
Brexit-related uncertainties are starting to benefit some destinations, while in London, revenue per room is expected to grow by just 0.6% in 2018 and 1.9% in 2019. The Dutch capital is therefore beginning to benefit from the weakening demand for the British capital. Amsterdam will see the European Medicines Agency move in in 2019, generating a volume of 40,000 overnight stays per year. Same Brexit effect expected in Frankfurt from 2019. The announced relocation of several banks from London to Germany's financial metropolis should boost the hotel industry, with RevPAR up by an estimated +4.31TP3Q, which would place the city in the top 5 in 2019. London hoteliers can rest assured, however. The city is expected to maintain one of the highest occupancy rates in Europe, equivalent to or slightly above 82% for this year and in 2019, with tourism boosted by the persistent weakness of sterling.
From his side, the Paris hotel industry is came out of the doldrums last year after a difficult period following the 2015 attacks. While revenue per available room had already grown by 8% in 2017, this year should confirm this recovery, albeit at a more modest rate of 3.6%. On the other hand, PwC forecasts a surge in demand in 2019, with RevPAR growth estimated at 6.4%. However, these forecasts do not take into account the impact of strikes by SNCF and Air France, which are already depressing demand, or the possible consequences of the recent Islamist attack in Paris.
Whatever the case, Paris remains one of the most expensive cities for the hotel industry. In 2017, the French capital had almost the highest average price per room in Europe, surpassed only by Geneva. The average rate per room (ADR) was €231.3, compared with €242.9 in Geneva, €169.2 in London and €137.2 in Milan. PwC expects no change between now and 2019, with Paris set to remain the second most expensive city on the continent, with an average rate of €241.
