In a post-confinement world, where the Covid-19 would act like a sword of Damocles over travel, the battle is likely to be fierce between the rail and Air to attract future travellers, particularly on routes that are relatively short. Since the launch of the high-speed rail networks, we already know that the train has gradually eaten into the aeroplane's market share on routes that the train can cover in three hours. In France, the TGV decimated air routes such as Paris-Lyon and Paris-NantesParis-Bordeaux or Paris-Strasbourg. With the exception of the Paris-Strasbourg route, which has disappeared altogether, the airlines had succeeded in build loyalty among a core group of passengersoften business travellers. In Europe, the damage was just as devastating, with the disappearance of airlines such as Paris-Cologne, Paris-Stuttgart, Paris-Berne, Paris-London City Airport and Paris- Paris.Brussels. Flights were also halted on a large part of the Austrian domestic network and on routes such as Berlin-Hamburg or Geneva-Basel, or the significant drop in traffic on Spanish domestic routes.
The last two years have also seen an increase in the number of passengers turning away from the plane for the following reasons environmentala phenomenon that first affected Scandinavia under the name of "flygskam (the "shame of stealing") but has also reached the Netherlands and Switzerland. In 2019, for example, air traffic in Sweden fell by 4.4% for the ten airports belonging to the airport operator Swedavia, while in Geneva, the slight increase in passenger numbers in 2019 to 1.4% was due in particular to a " travellers' relative appetite for air travel "says the annual report of the Geneva airport authority.
COVID-19 could mean a haemorrhage for airports with the accelerated closure of airlines. A detailed analysis of theUBS - Union Bank of Switzerland - forecasts that global air transport growth for the decade 2018-2028 could in fact decrease of 10 % compared to forecasts than before the coronavirus epidemic, largely due to an acceleration in the number of passenger transfers from plane to train high-speed trains. Although air transport is still expected to grow by 4.6% worldwide, compared with a previous forecast of 5.1%, growth will turn negative in Europe. UBS estimates that it should actually fall by 0.1% against a pre-COVID-19 estimate of 4.1%. Air transport growth in the United States should be revised from 3.2% to 2.8%, and in China from 8.1% to 6.4%.
Such a reduction in demand would require the withdrawal of around 2,000 aircraft over the next ten years - or around 196 aircraft a year - which, according to UBS analysts, would save between 2.7 and 3.4 million tonnes of carbon dioxide a year.
But the ecological argument is now winning over travellers, and is translating into a greater tolerance for longer train journey times. The results of a survey of 1,000 people in four European countries and China carried out by UBS Evidence Lab suggest that leisure travellers would accept train journeys of five to six hours, while leisure travellers would accept journeys of five to six hours. business travellers would now accept four-hour journeys instead of the two to three hours accepted until now.
In addition, COVID-19 highlights travellers' demand for a form of mobility that takes account of the environment. health security as an essential element. However, many passengers believe that maintaining sanitary distances will be easier to apply on trains than on planes. De facto neutralising seats on a train can be easily done at the time of booking, as can the introduction of additional frequencies.
find standard measures applying to air, rail and public transport
However, the problem of passengers with luggage, waiting times on platforms to avoid overcrowding and controlling the flow of people entering and leaving stations will still have to be resolved. These are issues that airports will also have to deal with. " The subject of social and health distancing calls for a new approach. uniform response for everyone involved in transport. We need to find standard measurements applying to air, rail and public transport to guarantee health safety for all passengers "says Philippe Bernand, Chairman of the Management Board of L'Oréal.Marseille Provence Airport.
On the basis of the UBS analysis, the European TGV could generate sales of 11 billion euros by 20225.9 billion, well above the previous forecast ofUNIFEthe European rail industry body. The enthusiasm for the railways could also be stimulated by the opening up of the railways to competition, which is now a reality in the European Union.
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Until a vaccine or medicines are found that can contain the spread of the virus, rail will have a clear advantage over airlines, particularly the main carriers. low-cost which are positioned in the same point-to-point traffic segment. Stricter hygiene measures, such as the systematic cleaning of aircraft after each flight, will increase turnaround times on the ground: an unfavourable factor for the low-cost system, whose aircraft generally remain on the ground for between 30 and 45 minutes on average. In addition, the social distancing on board the aircraft could result in a third of the seats in the cabin being neutralised. With a maximum fill rate of 66% - i.e. around 120 to 130 seats compared with 180 seats on an Airbus A320 - most low-cost carriers will lose money. Unless they increase fares drastically... and then lose low-cost airline regulars. The equation seems insoluble. But as Philippe Bernand says, " Low-cost has always shown great agility in the past. The industry will certainly be able to adapt! ".
