How is the pandemic being managed in the UK, one of the countries hardest hit in Europe and the rest of the world?
Tristan de Bourbon - The figures, which were in fact catastrophic, have tended to improve with the confinement imposed at the start of the year, and even before Christmas in London. The number of deaths is down, as are the number of patients in intensive care and the number of positive cases. Above all, the country is focusing on vaccination. Last Saturday, for example, almost 600,000 people were vaccinated in a single day; the aim is to have 70 % of the population vaccinated by 15 February. By placing the order with Astra Zeneca three months ahead of Europe, the pharmaceutical group's British plants have had time to get up to speed, after having experienced the same problems in the test phase as those encountered today in plants producing for the European Union (EU). Along with Italy, the UK is one of the countries most affected economically by covid in Europe, but - and this is Boris Johnson's gamble - the vaccination campaign should enable the UK economy to recover ahead of the others.
So can we expect easier access to the UK for business travellers?
T. de B. - It's a little early to say. The government has drawn on the experience of Australia and certain Asian countries. The visitors from the countries worst affected will have to go through a strict 10-day quarantineThey will have to stay in a hotel, at their own expense, before they can enter the country. For the moment, the 33 countries concerned are mainly in Latin America and Africa, but Portugal is also included. If the situation in the rest of the EU deteriorates, other countries could be added.
Doesn't the news about the coronavirus mask the initial effects of Brexit?
T. de B. - For the time being, the pandemic is masking its main consequences. Which suits the Brexiters, by the way. With the sharp slowdown in passenger flows, the British are not yet fully aware of its effect. However, we can already see that trade has remained limited since 1 January, admittedly after a period of intense trade prior to the exit from the European Union, as exporters and importers built up stocks in anticipation of the latter.
Trade, whether in exports or imports, the costs of which have exploded, is in the process of falling sharply.
Is Brexit the only reason for this slowdown?
T. de B. - This is not the only explanation. The IT system put in place by the British administration to manage the new administrative tasks also has its part to play. Its shortcomings have caused immense difficulties, especially as many businesses were ill-prepared for the changeover. The government is now working hard to improve the system's shortcomings, with covid giving it more time to adapt. Nevertheless, the no traffic jams at border crossings shows that trade, whether in exports or in imports, the costs of which have exploded, is in the process of falling sharply. The UK, which had a role as a distributor of products from abroad within the European Union, is losing this status. Other countries will certainly benefit from this.
How do you explain Boris Johnson's support for Brexit?
T. de B. - In my book, I paint the portrait of a politician who is certainly opportunistic and careerist, but who was convinced very early on of the need for his country to leave the European Union. Boris Johnson has all the "perfect little europeanaccording to his father Stanley, one of the first Britons to work at the Commission. He is fully rooted in European culture. He knows Latin and ancient Greek. He has lived in Brussels in the early 70s, when his father worked there, before returning from 1989 to 1994 as a journalist for the Daily Telegraph. It was during this period that he forged his critical view of Europe and its power, the exorbitant weight of the European Parliament in relation to national bodies, and the euro, which in his view is a flawed programme without a real common tax system. Hence his desire to see the United Kingdom regain its sovereignty at all costs. He thus presents himself as infinitely European, while hating the EU.
In the end, who stands to gain from an agreement on the UK's exit from the EU?
T. de B. - The British and the Europeans both see themselves as winners in this agreement, but they don't have the same vision. Whereas for LondonWhile the aim was to regain its sovereignty, Brussels wanted above all to protect its commercial interests.
As far as the negotiations are concerned, Boris Johnson has been criticised for abandoning the City in favour of British fishermen. Why were the services not involved in the negotiations?
T. de B. - London postponed the issue, saying that if they were going to negotiate on it, they should have give in on many other points. Today, the British think that with the completion of the Brexit, the European question has definitively disappeared from the news. On the contrary, like Switzerland, it is likely to be part of everyday life. The pro-Brexit daily The Express recently headlined that the country had fifty years of negotiations ahead of it. It should also be noted that, now that the country has left the EU, Boris Johnson is calling for "negotiations" rather than "Brexit". Negotiations, therefore, are a more obscure and complex subject for most people, far removed from the emotional aspect of Brexit. It's a way of drowning out the fish.
Services, consulting, finance: what can all these sectors expect in the near future?
T. de B. - A number of difficulties are to be expected. For certain activities, trade has become much more complicatedEach European country has different regulations. Some countries require you to be resident in order to work there, while others do not. As a Brit, you can go to a particular country to give a conference, but not to negotiate a contract. In the end, British companies will have to open subsidiaries under European law, for those that have not already done so. It is still too early to analyse this, but it will be interesting to see how many jobs will not have been created in the UK, precisely because they will have been created in EU countries.
For some activities, trading has become much more complicated, with each European country having different regulations.
The British government is said to want to turn London and the City into a "Singapore on the Thames" by dumping. Is this your analysis?
T. de B. - I don't believe that at all. Boris Johnson has always been in favour of lowering taxes and limiting regulation. But when you look closely at his policies, he is basically one of the most moderate Conservatives in his party. Liberal and free-marketeer, yes; but absolutely not Thatcherist. He is referred to as a "one-nation conservative", i.e. a right-wing politician who appeals to the population as a whole. When he won the last election in 2019, he positioned himself as the man who would revive ailing industrial areas, rather than the defender of the City at all costs. That's why he is now focusing on ecology, for economic and political rather than ideological reasons. Electric batteries, wind power: all this can generate hundreds of thousands of jobs that will regenerate the north of the country. Boris Johnson is a shrewd and skilful man. In my book, I paint a much more nuanced, and therefore more interesting, portrait than the clownish Boris he portrays. Above all, it's a façade that he created for himself when he was a teenager.
With Brexit, is the future of Ireland and Scotland in or out of the UK?
T. de B. - Belfast will benefit from the Brexit, as it will remain within the European sphere in terms of regulations. Irish companies will undoubtedly take advantage of this to strengthen their presence in the north of the island, a major change compared to previous decades when Northern Ireland was richer than its southern neighbour. In the longer term, there is little doubt that the two Irelands will be reunited. The younger generations are in favour. In fact, the Good Friday Agreement stipulates that if a majority wants a referendum on the subject, London cannot oppose it. The fact remains, however, that there are still armed tensions in the province, and we will probably have to wait for the generations that experienced the military unrest to die out before we see the island reunited. On the other hand, the likelihood of Scotland leaving the United Kingdom is more remote. Recent polls give independence a lead of around ten points.
Is this in line with Boris Johnson's initial vision?
T. de B. - No, he is an ardent supporter of Brexit, even if he knew that it could affect the unity of the kingdom. He may go down in history as the man of Brexit, or even better, the Tony Blair of the rightif he succeeds in boosting employment and regenerating the north of the country. But to be the Prime Minister who shrinks the United Kingdom is anything but ambitious.
