We knew that the arrival of Donald Trump in the White House would amount to a veritable revolution in the way the world's leading power conducts its affairs. The over-activity deployed by the President's new American administration generates surprise on a daily basis, often incomprehension, and increasingly so, a rejection - even anger in the world.
Certain decisions - the latest of which is a tightening of the conditions for granting tourist visas to around forty countries, are beginning to have an impact on aviation activity. Other examples include the US administration's uncertainties about raising tariffs or conquering new territories - Canada and Greenland. Or the suspension of US contributions to international institutions (see the example of Geneva below).
Travel, the number one item sacrificed by American businesses and consumers
All these decisions are the beginnings of a slowdown of the travel request. On the domestic front, the closure of federal agencies and institutions supported by government budgets is causing anxiety among American consumers. The uncertainty weighing on many households is beginning to translate into a revision of travel intentions. What's more, the the closure of federal agencies automatically reduces business travel. Delta Air Lines estimates that travel by these institutions represents between 2% and 4% of the volume of air travel!
The Reuters press agency reported that the heads of the four largest US airlines (American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Southwest and United Airlines) are seeing a slowdown in demand.
Last week, American announced that it expected a larger financial loss for the first quarter due to a sharp slowdown in revenues. Southwest Airlines reduced its revenue forecasts for the first quarter, citing fewer government trips in addition to the impact of the forest fires in California. United is hardly any more optimistic. The US company believes that its 1st quarter profits will now be at the lower end of its forecasts. The company points out that travel by civil servants has fallen by 50% since the arrival of Donald Trump... Finally, Delta has halved its profit estimates.
The "51st State of the United States" causes traffic between Canada and the USA to plummet
The Trump administration's policies are also having an impact on the international stage. Donald Trump's remarks on the Canadafuture 51st State of the Union".This led to a boycott of the United States by Canadians.
The number of Canadians travelling by car to the United States fell by 23% in February, according to Statistics Canada. The decline in air travel is less marked. If we compare February 2025 with the first 28 days of 2024, the decline was 11%. The Canadian carrier Westjet has already reported a drop in demand of 25% for the United States over the next few months, replaced by the Caribbean and Mexico.
Air Canada has begun to reduce its frequencies to leisure destinations in the United States such as Arizona, Nevada and Florida. While United Airlines has announced that it is adjusting its transborder flights programme. The boycott is likely to grow even stronger after the Trump administration decided on 9 March to impose compulsory registration for Canadian citizens wishing to stay in the United States for more than 30 days. The programme, which the White House has dubbed " Protecting Americans from invasion" ...
When the United States takes its toll on Geneva's economy
An example of the effects of this policy outside the United States: the town of Geneva. Its economy is highly dependent on international institutions. In addition, theNon-governmental organisations (NGOs). According to figures from the Swiss Confederation, Geneva is home to 43 international organisations and around 750 NGOs? That's around 32,000 international civil servants, diplomats and representatives of civil society. The "International Geneva" generates over 5,000 conferences per year, organised as face-to-face, teleconference or hybrid sessions and attended by more than 520,000 delegates from all over the world.
The withdrawal of the United States from the UN agencies WHO (International Health Organisation) and IOM (UN International Organisation for Migration) has resulted in budgets being cut from 25% to 50%. This means countless redundancies, which will have a negative impact on international business of the Swiss city. The UN and NGOs generate more than 6.5 billion Swiss francs in economic spin-offs. Some economists believe that this contribution could now fall by 50%.
This situation has forced the canton and the city of Geneva to support its international sector. A fund and loans of 12 million Swiss francs have been allocated to compensate workers who have been made redundant and to enable the activities of certain NGOs to continue.
European consumers are also beginning to follow Canada's lead by boycotting US products and destinations.. The movement gained momentum in Scandinavia and Germany and began in France.
At the Salon Mondial du Tourisme in Paris, a French tour operator reported that demand for travel to the United States was actually falling. And with the possible new tariffs on European products from the Trump administrationBusiness travel is also likely to be affected.
