China and Japan out of reach by 2021

China: splendid isolation

China was the first to be hit by the Covid-19 pandemic. But it is also officially the first to emerge from the health crisis thanks to drastic measures unheard of elsewhere, including total control of its population's movements through confinement and intrusive technologies.

This success against the pandemic has enabled China to return to almost normal life. And to be the only nation in the world to record GDP growth in 2020. The country's growth reached 2.3 % last year, a performance that is obviously due to the immensity of the Chinese domestic market.

The closure of borders on 23 March 2020 to contain the pandemic has isolated China from the rest of the world. And, more than a year after the closure, the country remains closed to the rest of the world.. The conditions for visiting China remain drastic, or impossible. Travellers needing to enter the country for urgent reasons can apply for visas at Chinese embassies and consulates. Visas are issued at the sole discretion of the Chinese authorities. A double PCR and serological test in the two days prior to departure. A QR code is then sent, giving the traveller the green light. Once there, a 14- or 21-day quarantine is applied depending on the province of arrival. And it's up to the traveller to pay the bill.

Another difficulty: travellers can only arrive in China on a non-stop flight. However, the flight schedule between China and the rest of the world has been drastically reduced. The country generally authorises only one or two flights a week by a foreign airline, and vice versa for Chinese carriers. What's more, airlines are not allowed to serve China directly. Beijing airports.

As for inter-provincial travel, they are subject to a check based on the QR code of a healthcare application. If the code is green, no quarantine is required on arrival in a province or municipality.

International diplomatic relations under the spotlight in China's shutdown

Le Strict controls on foreign visitors is certainly a political dimension. For some time now, China has liked to show its muscles to the rest of the world. This has led to a worsening diplomatic relations with Western countries which, by its rebound effect, does little to encourage Beijing to be more open to foreign visitors.

Especially as China has little need of the 65 million tourists who will be visiting the country in 2019. The Chinese market is self-sufficient, generating on average five billion domestic journeys. In the context of covid, the performance of domestic tourism in 2020 was not so mediocre after all, with 2.88 billion domestic journeys and more than 265 billion in revenue...

Another paradox: despite its isolation, the China to remain the world's largest international tourism market in 2020. In fact, 18 million Chinese visitors were recorded abroad. Even though this performance was actually achieved in January 2020 alone.

According to COTRI (China Outbound Travel Research Institute), However, 2021 should see the return of Chinese tourists, but only in Asia.. COTRI estimates that 100 million Chinese could travel abroad as a result. That's a long way from the 170 million Chinese who will be flooding into the rest of the world in 2019... But 2021 will finally mark a turning point. On the other hand, China is unlikely to become more accessible to foreign visitors. In 2022 then?

Japan, the almost irrational fear of viruses

Another major business destination in Asia is Japan is almost as isolated as its Chinese neighbour. Last year, there were a few attempts to facilitate the entry of certain travellers - coming, for example, for urgent reasons or on official business. But the The virus is back in Europe in January very quickly translated into a re-closing the country to foreign travellers. For the time being, it is virtually impossible for foreigners to travel to Japan. Most of the exceptions authorising travel have been de facto suspended.

There is a significant psychological dimension to the Japanese government's decisions. The inhabitants of the archipelago live in almost irrational fear of anything uncontrollable. Like acts of terrorism or epidemics, for example. The country's current isolation must a lot to a Japanese psyche so special.

At the end of March, no sooner had the last containment restrictions been lifted in Tokyo and its immediate suburbs than the government announced that it was already preparing for the arrival of a possible fourth wave of contagion. Preventive isolation measures were imposed from 10 April in Tokyo, but also in Osaka and Kyoto..

The Tokyo Olympics under the sign of Covid

A new wave of contamination at Covid risk of go off the rails Once again, the Tokyo Olympic Games, postponed from 2020 to the end of July this year. The announcement at the end of March of not to receive foreign visitors has cast a shadow over these Games, the strangest the Olympic movement has seen since the post-war period.

Faced with a vaccination that won't take off and British virus in the archipelago, keeping the game going seems like a tall order. Polls show that the majority of Japanese are hostile to the idea. The fear of welcoming non-quarantined athletes has led to fears of a massive contagion among the population.

The Olympics are a veritable money pit for the country, and postponing them again would only add to the burden. In 2013, when the IOC awarded the Games to Tokyo, Japan estimated the cost of the event at more than €5.64 billion. Following a fifth budget revision, we are now talking about 12.6 billion euros2.3 billion of which was generated by the one-year deferral.

A third of this new expenditure is devoted to health and prevention measures, but also to the following areas the reimbursement of 630,000 tickets sold abroadIt will also affect businesses affected by the loss of international visitors. It is estimated that this absence will reduce revenue by €550 million.

More than half the budget comes from taxpayers' money. This made it possible to finance new stadiums, transport infrastructure and the Olympic Village. However, hosting the Olympics against all odds also has a psychological dimension. To show a Japan that stands firm in the face of adversity. And whose Olympics would help stimulate the economy. Japan saw its GDP fall by -4.9 1TP3Q in fiscal year 2020 but it could increase by 3.7% in 2021, partly thanks to the Olympic Games effect. And put the covid epidemic behind us for a while.