As it does every year in February, In Extenso has drawn up a report on the state of the hotel business in France over the past year, with STR adding its international perspective. Unsurprisingly, both analyses confirmed the trend, a widespread recovery. Demand is admittedly 8% lower worldwide than the volume reached in 2019, according to STR. However, with the second half of the year finally free of the main problems associated with the pandemic, hotel occupancy has gradually returned to levels fairly close to those of 2019 in most regions of the world, with the exception of Asia and China.
Already underway in 2021, the rise in average prices has accelerated further. In many of Europe's major cities, STR reports double-digit price growth: Berlin (+13%), London (+19%), Rome (+31%), Paris (+37%), and Istanbul (+54%). A very significant rise, but one that has begun to slow down since the beginning of 2023, before undoubtedly slowing down in the second half of the year, particularly in Paris and the Benelux countries. This analyst notes that, in the major European cities, hotel rates were 20% above 2019 levels in the last quarter of 2022, a gap that should narrow to +15% by the end of 2023.
As far as France is concerned, In Extenso sees 2022 as ". a year of pleasant surprises "The occupancy rate is now only -6 % lower than in 2019. This increase in occupancy combined with a further rise in average prices of +16 % meant that RevPAR - accommodation sales - rose by +9 %. None of the categories failed to benefit from this widespread growth, ranging from +9% in the super-economy segment to +13% in the top-of-the-range and luxury segments, via +8% in the mid-range segment. In this context, budget hotels stood out with a limited increase in RevPAR of 1%.Geographically, this recovery is particularly noticeable in the destinations most dependent on international customers, who have long been penalised by travel restrictions. Last year, for example, hotels in Paris and on the Côte d'Azur recorded RevPAR growth of +18% vs 2019, while for the rest of the regions the increase is +7%.
Overall, the summer period was very successful for hoteliers in major French cities (+38% in Paris, +28% in Marseille, +26% in Nice, +11% in Rennes, +9% in Lille, +7% in Bordeaux, +6% in Lyon). At the same time, the upturn in professional events, which began in autumn 2021 but was put on hold by the Omicron wave, has enabled the major seminar establishments in the provinces toa return to average attendance levels. Over the months of June and September, two traditionally strong months, seminar hotels in major cities saw their RevPAR rise by +5% , compared with a fall of -3% in Paris and -11% in the Ile-de-France region.
As far as the business segment is concerned, STR notes that overall revenues from international business travel remain -50% lower in 2022 than in 2019. While the gap is expected to narrow in the future in this business segment, to around -35% in 2023 and below -20% in 2024, STR is much more positive on the following points domestic business travel. Having already exceeded 2019 levels last year, STR expects domestic business travel to grow further, by +10% vs 2019 in 2023 and not far from +20% in 2024.
So what can French hoteliers expect for 2023 after this phase of recovery from the crisis in 2022? While STR estimates that hotel occupancy in Paris should exceed that achieved in 2019 in the first quarter of 2023, In Extenso expects further widespread growth in RevPAR over the year as a whole, +6.5% in Paris, +4.5% on the Côte d'Azur and +4.0% elsewhere in the provinces. This positive scenario goes beyond France. When announcing its quarterly and annual results, Marriott announced that it was forecasting RevPAR growth of between 6% and 11% in 2023 worldwide, and between 12% and 18% for its hotels outside North America.
