Without SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuels), there can be no growth in air transport; without e-SAF, there can be no future; but there can be no sustainable future without a parallel reduction in air traffic. Even up to 2040, by which time the expansion of these sustainable fuels will have significantly reduced emissions, but also after that. Even in the most optimistic scenarios, SAF production cannot increase fast enough or in large enough quantities to comply with the Paris Agreement. This, in a nutshell, is the conclusion of the report "Being able to fly without oil" produced by the Aéro Décarbo association in partnership with Jean-Marc Jancovici's think tank The Shift Project.
With air traffic expected to grow at a rate of 3% per year worldwide over the next two decades, doubling in size by 2050, the conclusions of Aero Décarbo and the Shift Project are in line with those of ADEME, which, as early as 2022, spoke of the need for moderation before SAF reaches cruising speed and the sector no longer relies essentially on fossil paraffin. According to this report, a worldwide reduction of at least 15 % in traffic over the next five years would be necessary to remain compatible with a climate trajectory limiting global warming to +1.7°C. In other words, a transitional return to 2010 levels.
Reducing incentives to travel and advertising, limiting demand and controlling supply, reducing airport expansion, supporting alternatives such as rail: Aéro Decarbo and The Shift Project have put forward a number of solutions to accompany the reduction in traffic by travelling less often and less far.
According to the association, for France, halving the average of 3,000 km per person per year would be the right figure. And this would include an acceptable trade-off for the origin of sustainable fuels in the face of conflicts over the use of biomass for the production of bioSAF and all the low-carbon electricity needed for the deployment of e-SAF.
Aero Decarbo is therefore counting on an allocation of 30 TWh of electricity and 30 % of liquid biofuels. Otherwise, according to the study, at the anticipated rate of growth in French air traffic and in order to comply with the FAS incorporation mandates set by the European Union, we would need to allocate no less than 20% of electricity production and 30% of biomass that could be used as biofuel each year... for aviation alone.
At a time when the industry is wondering whether it will be possible to reach the 20% mark for SAF carried on board European airlines set by the EU ReFuel Regulation (see article), Aero Decarbo and The Shift Project are highlighting the importance of SAF production - and even more so of synthetic fuel. This is vital for the long-term future of the sector as a whole, but also for France's energy sovereignty.
