Will there be enough kerosene this summer? That's the question many households are asking themselves when booking their holidays, as are all business travellers who need to travel before the summer break. Passengers are potentially put off by flight cancellations announced by several airlines. " A topic that has been discussed rather at length, as they have remained a niche market, accounting for less than 2% of French airlines’ passenger numbers"Indeed," remarks Pascal de Izaguirre, the president of the National Federation of Aviation and its Trades (FNAM). And they are concentrated on the quieter months, May and June, without affecting the peak summer slots. There is no need to fear cancellations for any commercial reason whatsoever. ".
The speech aims to be reassuring. At this stage, the FNAM does not notably see any slackening in demand for this key season, “ with an order book at the same level as last year », stated the president of the federation. A recent meeting with several ministers also brought several assurances to the players in the air transport industry. Whether it was the capacity of energy companies to ensure kerosene supplies or, if necessary, a possible recourse to the state's strategic stocks in the event of real tension.
Furthermore, the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) validated, on the 9th of May, the possibility of using American Jet A fuel, which is slightly different from the European Jet A1, but which will allow us to no longer depend on the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. And that, in addition to possible support mechanisms for airlines most financially weakened by the soaring price of kerosene.
The war in the Middle East has indeed sent shockwaves through the entire cost structure of airlines. Kerosene, which was trading at around €600 per tonne before the conflict, soared to €1,500 per tonne within a matter of weeks – a rise of 150%. This is a shock of unprecedented magnitude for the sector, as fuel costs, which previously accounted for between 25% and 30% of airlines’ costs, can now reach up to 45% of their expenses.
Secure supplies, moderate price increase
To maintain booking momentum for the critical summer sales period, airlines have so far chosen to absorb part of this sharp increase and keep their fares in check. The companies have been reasonable with a moderate increase, far from matching the extra cost. », highlights Pascal de Izaguirre. But, he warns, « this absorption capacity is limited. No airline's business model can accommodate such a price level if the crisis lasts too long All the more so as the federation did not fail to highlight the other elements that weigh on the sector's operating costs, including increased taxation, an increasingly restrictive regulatory environment, and ever-stronger international competition.
Whether the crisis drags on or resolves more quickly, it will have had the merit of shining a brighter light on the excessive energy dependence of France and Europe. And consequently, of changing the perspective on sustainable aviation fuels, no longer just a decarbonisation lever, regardless of where airlines source them, but an issue of national and European sovereignty. This crisis must make the authorities realise that it is time to take our destiny into our own hands and to manufacture SAF and e-SAF in Europe and France., underlined Muriel Assouline, General Manager of Air Caraïbes. If we replace a dependence on Middle Eastern kerosene with a dependence on imported SAF, we will have gained nothing. "
Whilst the targets set by the European Union require airlines to use 1.21% e-SAF by 2030, rising to 5.1% by 2035, no sustainable synthetic fuel is yet being produced on an industrial scale in Europe. In France, the funds allocated to the development of this sector are limited to €100 million. An amount deemed “ clearly insufficient » by the FNAM, unlike Germany where two billion euros, derived from ETS Aviation revenues, were mobilised to support the development of e-SAF. The FNAM calls on France to adopt the same logic, by earmarking aviation tax revenues towards the sector's decarbonisation and the creation of a French SAF and e-SAF industry. With the presidential election approaching, there is no doubt that the FNAM will be the voice for this ambition.
