While the GBTA Convention returns to Boston from 15 to 19 July, the International Business Travel Association Foundation publishes with Carlson Wagonlit Travel its traditional global travel forecasts for 2018 ". This fourth edition, available online, forecasts a relatively marked increase in rates for next year, particularly in theair (+3.5%) and hotels (+3.7%) on a global scale. For urban and rail transport, however, the trend will be stable (+0.6%).
While some buyers may be concerned about this rise, the authors of the study see it as a positive trend, symptomatic of a strengthening global economy: " Price rises reflect the strength of the economy and growth in demand "says Kurt Ekert, President & CEO of Carlson Wagonlit Travel. He added: " These overall figures should be seen as strong indicators of the 2018 outlook for global businesses, and we anticipate an increase in spending ".
Europe - and France - are likely to be particularly hard hit by the rise in air fares. Indeed, this "Forecast 2018 is betting on an above-average rise in prices in the west of the continent (+5.5%), which will be all the more significant for the more noticeable in French skies (+7.1%). However, the authors of the study point out that ". currency fluctuations could have a further impact on air fares in 2018 "and note that " that Eastern Europe is still likely to see the biggest price rises in the region "In other markets, GBTA and CWT expect to see less of an increase in tariffs. In other markets, GBTA and CWT expect tariff increases to be less marked: Asia-Pacific (+2.8%) will be penalised by the weakness of its infrastructure, North America (+2.3%) by the "global economic crisis", and the United States (+2.3%) by the "global financial crisis". migration restrictions imposed by the Trump administration, while Latin America (+0.31TP3Q) should see low-cost airlines increase their market share.
The surge in prices in Europe should also apply to the hotel sector, even if the organisation of the World Cup in Russia is boosting figures for the EMEA market. L'Russian hotels should post a double-digit increase (11.9%), but it is in Norway where forecasts are strongest: +14%. French hotels will also be increasing their prices, but more modestly (+5.8%), below the average growth in Western Europe (+6.3%). Asia will also be affected by this upward trend, and the authors of the study warn: " Buyers should expect more difficult discussions with newly merged hotel groups, particularly in high-volume markets such as BangkokBeijing, Shanghai and Singapore ". Conversely, the Latin American hotel industry will see a fall in rates (1.2 %), particularly noticeable in the heavyweights of business travel such as the Brazil (-8.7 %) and theArgentina (-2,7 %).
Finally, the GBTA-CWT study also looked at land transport. 2018 looks set to be a much quieter year - sluggish even - for players in the urban and rail transport sectors. While specialists are expecting an increase of 5.5 % by 2022Prices will remain relatively stable next year (+0.6%). " Land transport will remain highly competitive in the EMEA region "says the study. " Overall, prices are expected to remain stable in Europe, with a meagre increase of 1 % in the Middle East and Africa. Once again, rail will be a viable alternative to air transport throughout Europe, particularly in view of the tighter security measures at airports. In France, rates will remain stable (0%) ". However, not all business travel suppliers are in the same boat. In fact, GBTA forecasts promise double-digit growth for players in the sharing economy. Uber and Lyftto name but a few - which should, however, ease off in 2019.
" Now, more than ever, industry professionals have many factors to analyse when designing their travel programmes, including geopolitical risks, uncertainties in emerging markets and the constantly changing political environment in Europe and the United States. "says Jeanne Liu, Vice-President of Research at the GBTA Foundation. " The best programmes will need to pay close attention to geopolitical risks and the rapid transformation of the supplier ecosystem, so that they can frequently re-evaluate their strategy and adapt it if necessary. "she warns.
