What is the main obstacle to a return to tourism in Asia?
Bill Barnett - As in the rest of the world, Asia is faced with crucial choices. We are dealing with a collision between health and political imperatives and economic support. As a result, there is very often conflict within the government over the direction to take. Which factor should be given priority? What consensus can be reached within the same government? Countries where democratic practices are often the antithesis of those in the West are certainly favoured in this crisis. La ChinaSingapore and Vietnam, for example, have a good grasp of the epidemic situation. Decisions are made quickly and often coercively. Local governments speak with one voice, without consultation...
What about other Asian countries?
B. B. - Visit Japan, Korea or in ChinaDomestic travel is a major source of support for the hotel sector. In Japan, for example, some 4.5 million overnight stays were recorded after a bonus was awarded in July. In China, domestic tourism is helping to cushion the decline in the hotel sector. Experts estimate that the Chinese hotel industry will contain the decline in occupancy rates to 5 % over the year. In South-East Asia, the situation is more complicated, particularly in Indonesia or in Thailand. Political consultations are dragging on. And frequent changes of direction are causing confusion.
What do you need for a takeover?
B. B. - A vaccine is definitely going to change the situation and restore confidence. Because at the moment, it's fear that prevails among many travellers. This is a feeling to which Asians are more sensitive than elsewhere. The 'fear' factor, for example, will influence multi-destination travel. In the near future, many people will be reluctant to take a tour combining several cities, for fear of multiplying the possibilities of contamination or quarantine measures.
Countries where democratic practices are the antithesis of those in the West are favoured in this crisis. China, Singapore and Vietnam, for example, have a good grasp of the epidemic situation. Decisions are taken quickly and often coercively.
How do you see the future of business travel in the region?
B. B. - I think we're going to see a concentration of business travel in the major cities. They are the economic hubs of the entire continent. And by hubs, I'm thinking of hubs like Bangkok, Shanghai, Singapore or Tokyo. Hong Kong is likely to suffer from this feeling of "fear" of international visitors. But the cause of this fear is its political environment. This same phenomenon of fear can be seen in the travel of business travellers between China and the United States because of the latent tensions.
How do you see demand in the hotel sector developing?
B. B. - In general, falling hotel prices mean that four- and five-star establishments are very cheap. This will lead to a fall in demand in the mid-range hotel sector.three-star hotels. At the same time, the chains are likely to grow in popularity, because travellers will feel more secure about their health than in hotels of unknown brand.
When do you predict a substantial improvement in tourism activity and a return to a degree of normality?
B. B. - First and foremost, the entry conditions need to be simpler, otherwise I predict that many hotels will go bankrupt in the next three to six months, because they will lack liquidity. There should be an improvement in 2021 and a return to normality in 2022. I'd like to be optimistic, but I think it's better to prepare for the worst.
