Could Air Canada suffer from the deterioration in relations between Canada and the United States?

Donald Trump's sulphurous declaration on the possibility of making Canada the 51st state of the United States is causing deep tension between the two countries. And could affect the growth prospects of Air Canada, which is heavily involved with its neighbour...
Air Canada and United States
An Air Canada Airbus A220, notably deployed to the United States (Photo: Air Canada)

The national airline Air Canada could it be one of the collateral victims of the profound deterioration in relations between the United States and Canada? ? It's quite possible, as the following confessed Mark Galardo, General Vice President, Sales and Network Planning.

An essential business between Europe and the United States

Of course, nothing has been decided yet. But the company is already preparing for the possibility of a significant reduction in capacity to the United States. This would be a real break in strategy. Somewhat comparable to the reorientation of Finnair's traffic following the ban on overflying Russia.

According to the latest figures provided by the company when presenting its balance sheet for the fourth quarter and the 2024 financial year, 18% of seat capacity is on the cross-border market. It is the third largest for Air Canada after the transatlantic market (34%) and the domestic market (21%).

The American market is essential for Air Canada in terms of sixth freedom rights. This right allows an airline to carry a passenger from market A to market B via the market where the carrier originates. Air Canada estimates in its balance sheet that 80 % from the US market to the international network can efficiently transit through its three hubs Toronto, Montréal and Vancouver.

A very strong leisure market

Air Canada serves 40 American destinations this winter. For example, it is one of the few international airlines to connect Sarasota and West Palm Beach in Florida, or Sacramento in California. Nevertheless, Air Canada's very strong presence on the southern United States - Las VegasArizona, Louisiana and Florida - is heavily dependent on demand from Canadian leisure markets. However, Donald Trump's statement is being reflected in the Canadian public opinion by numerous calls to boycott of the United States. Travel in particular.

In the words of Mark Galardo on Radio Canada, " we do not see any major slowdown or anything substantial that could change our view of the US market. That said, if we could reduce the risks a little, be a little proactive and shift capacity to other, more dynamic geographical segments, I think that would be the right decision to make at the moment, in this context." . Leisure destinations in Canada, as well as the Caribbean, Mexico and Europe, could well see new developments...