The latest data from ForwardKeys, a firm which analyses the evolution of global air traffic by working on the capacities of flights put into service, on flight searches and on more than 17 million booking transactions per day, reveal that in 2019 the growth in international air traveltravel, rose by 4.5 %, a sharp slowdown on the growth in travel in 2018, which had risen by 61 %, and even more than the average for the last decade, which had averaged 6.8 % per year.
Olivier Ponti, Vice President Insight for ForwardKeys, explains this slowdown by several factorsin particulartrade disputes between the United States and Canada, China, Mexico and the European Unionthe riots in Chile, France, Hong Kong and India, the grounding of the Boeing 737 MAXterrorism in Sri Lanka, the emergence of the 'flight shamingand finally the bankruptcy of major airlines such as Jet Airways or TUI Airlines." "All these events have really slowed down growth"he says.
While air transport increased in all regions of the world in 2019, the Middle East was a key growth region. notable exception with a 2.4 % fall in the number of trips. The main cause of this decline was the bankruptcy of Jet Airways, which reduced flight capacity between the Middle East and India. While travel between Middle Eastern countries rose by 0.7 %, travel to other regions of the world fell by 3.9 %.
The region that stands out in 2019 remains Asia-Pacific. Travel between countries in the region grew strongly by 8.7 %, while international travel was up by 7.7 %, reflecting strong economic growth in the region. Europe performed particularly well as a destination, recording growth of 11.7 % in the Asia-Pacific market, boosted by new routes following the success of the EU-China tourism year.
The second most dynamic region is Africa with all international travel up by 7.5 %. The strong development of Ethiopian Airlines routes are having a positive influence on the continent's growth. The airline has densified its routes between Addis Ababa and Delhi, Guangzhou, Jakarta, Manila and Seoul, and is adding new routes to Bangalore, as well as to New York via Abidjan.
The third most dynamic region, the Americas saw international travel grow by 4.8 %, stimulated by travel outside the continent, up by 6.8%, while the United States saw a decline in international travel. intra-american links recorded lower growth of 3.2%. Finally, travel from Europe rose by 3.7 %. Travel between European countries rose by 3.3 %, while travel to other continents increased by 5.5 %.
For 2020, ForwardKeys forecasts accelerationAlthough the consultancy firm was unable to include the recent tensions between the United States and Iran. The outlook for the next three months is much more optimistic, with international flight bookings at 1 January 2020 8.3 % higher than at the start of 2019.
Africa seems gain momentum with flight bookings up 12.5% since January 1, including +10% to other African countries and +13.5% to the rest of the world. As a destination, Africa is also expected to perform well, with bookings from other continents projected up by 12.9 %.
Europe seems regain some colour according to ForwardKeys, which noted a 10.5 % increase in international bookings in the first quarter, split between a 9.6 % rise on intra-European routes and an 11.81 % rise on bookings to the rest of the world.
Asia-Pacific saw an increase of 8.3 % in travel bookings, including 7.7% on intra-regional routes. The Americas, on the other hand, saw a sharp slowdown due to the strength of the dollar. ForwardKeys forecasts a total increase in bookings in the first quarter of 4.7%, but only 1.7 % on intra-US routes.
Finally, the travel outlook for the Middle East is starting to improve. In the first quarter, international bookings are up 2.2 % compared to 1 January 2019, and 6.8% regionally, but long-haul bookings are only up 0.4%. However, ForwardKeys points out that this analysis predates the deteriorating relations between the United States and Iran.
