African air transport hopes for a stronger recovery in 2022

According to the results recently published by the African Airlines Association (AFRAA), African air transport remains weighed down by the Covid crisis. And above all the lack of coordination of measures at continental level, which would enable a certain level of stability to be maintained for travellers.
Dakar airport (Jjm2311, CC BY-SA 4.0 , via Wikimedia Commons)

As in the rest of the world, 2021 saw the start of a recovery in air transport in Europe. Africa. But this recovery has been relatively moderate. According to the Association of African Airlines (AFRAA), the number of passengers hosted by the region's airlines has indeed reaches 42.3% of its 2019 volume.

In the last year before the start of the pandemic, the continent's airlines carried 95.6 million passengers. Last year, the companies counted 55.2 millionan improvement on 2020 and its 34.7 million of passengers. Seat capacity represented 52.7% of the 2019 offer.

In detail, Domestic demand represented 42% of what it was in 2019. A much better result than demand on intra-African (31.9%) and intercontinental (25.6%) routes..

Health and political obstacles

AFRAA points to the paucity of measures adopted across the continent by the various countries in the slow recovery of traffic. Indeed, it seems surprising that passenger demand has only improved by 20 points between 2020 and 2021. And this on a continent where in most cases, air travel is still the only quick way to get around.

AFRAA blames the very strict rules imposed on travellersThese include: the insistence of many countries on accepting only fully vaccinated travellers prior to their journey; the introduction of forced vaccination in certain ports of arrival; the repatriation of passengers who do not meet the entry conditions; and the placing of passengers in quarantine at their own expense. There are also punitive measures. The association reports that Ghana now imposes a fine of 3,500 dollars for transporting a passenger without a recall or who has not completed a health declaration...

Among the factors contributing to traffic disruption were the political problems shaking certain African countries. As theEthiopia whose government is in conflict with a northern province, while famine is affecting the south of the country. Both factors have affected air traffic. And the smooth running of the Ethiopian Airlines hub in Addis Ababa.

More recently, the crisis in Mali has also resulted in the closure of Malian skiesThe country has been isolated by its neighbours in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).

Weak vaccinations hold back recovery

However, AFRAA does have some positive points. It indicates that at least three airlines on the continent continued to expand last year. With the number of international routes once again exceeding their pre-Covid network. AFRAA also points out that by the end of 2021, African airlines had reopened 80.8% of their entire pre-crisis network.. Even if the number of frequencies remains lower than in 2019. Connectivity on intra-African routes reached 80% in December compared with the same month in 2019.

Finally, there remains the problem of a low vaccination rate for Covid-19 in African air transport compared with other continents. According to WHO figures, less than 15% of the population had been vaccinated by early March. This compares with more than 72.1% in the European Economic Area (EEA), according to the European Union.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) also estimated that the outlook for passenger traffic in Africa remains weaker than elsewhere in the short term. Passenger numbers to, from and within Africa will recover more slowly than in other regions. IATA projects that this traffic will reach 76 % of 2019 levels in 2022. It will not exceed pre-crisis levels until 2025..