Can European air transport withstand the political turbulence of 2025?

With America now hostile to Europe, and Russia a destabilising, even destructive, force for the continent, can Europe's air industry withstand this negative context? The recent 'Aviation-Event 2025 CLJ' air forum in Cluj, Romania, did offer a note of hope...
Europe and the world
The panel on the strengths of European aviation at the Aviation-Event 2025 CLJ conference included Luis Felipe de Oliveira (ex-ACI World), Rüdiger Franke, CEO Frankfurt-Hahn Airport and Askin Demir, CEO, Dakar Blaise Diagne International Airport, as well as Luc Citrinot, Head of Aviation, Business Travel. (Photo: Aviation-Event)

For the past 4 years, the city of Cluj in Transylvania (Romania) has played host to a conference on aviation, theAviation-Event CLJa partnership with the German company Aviation-Event and the international airport. This forum provides an opportunity to meet leaders in the airline industry as well as political leaders involved in aviation and travel. The 2025 conference was no exception to the rule, attracting in particular the President and a Vice-President of the Airports Association (ACI World), political figures from the European Union and aviation technology companies.

One of the debates concerned the Europe's special position in a difficult geopolitical and economic context. Can European air transport still serve as a model for the world? Can it prove that it is possible to reconcile traffic growth with decarbonisation and inclusiveness objectives? Especially as Europe is now in the face of a Trump administration that clearly disputes social diversity, climate change and the need to adapt the economy to these factors. " We must continue to show that we are leaders in this field and that we can reconcile the objectives of decarbonising aviation by 2040 with growth", said Luis Felipe de Oliveira, former Managing Director of ACI World.

However, the industry's high level of taxation is jeopardising the objectives of CO2-neutral air transport. It's a huge investment, estimated by industry specialists at 1,300 billion euros by 2050" continued Luis Felipe de Oliveira.

Taxing air transport: a real danger for the sector

The Airline Association IATA estimates that European consumer rules cost the economy €5 billion a year. So the open skies policy that makes Europe's largest liberal aviation market of the world could be jeopardised by national policies. Last year, Europe recorded 2.5 billion passengers according to IATA and ACI. In terms of revenue/passenger/km, Europe is the world's second largest passenger market after Asia-Pacific. And even the world's largest if we consider only international passenger flows.

This position could be jeopardised by external threats. These include theRussia's ban on overflying its territory which is affecting traffic from Western Europe to Asia. This configuration gives a overwhelming advantage to Chinese companies their competitors on the Europe-China route. Global hubs in the Middle East are another threat to European hubs. In addition, there are now the United States with an unpredictable Trump administration. This generates growing consumer hostility which is beginning to translate into Decline in traffic between Europe and the United States.

Europe is the number one destination for European travellers

But what was the good news from Aviation-Event in Cluj? Europe is more resilient than you might think by the very nature of its traffic. According to IATA figures for 2023, which analyse air traffic by country, point-to-point traffic - i.e. from destination A to destination B without a onward flight. represents the majority of European air traffic.

In Hungary, for example, the figure is 100%, and in Spain, Greece, Italy, the Czech Republic, Romania, Sweden and the United Kingdom it is above 90%. In Austria, Denmark, France, Portugal and Switzerland, the number of passengers with these countries as their final destination is above 80%. And even in countries with major hubs such as Germany, Finland and the Netherlands, this percentage fluctuates between 67% and 76%.

Graph : Percentage of passengers with a European country as their final destination (IATA, by country/2023)

Europe is asserting itself by a long way, as the number 1 destination for travellers by country. Again, with figures ranging from 75% to 90%. One major exception is France where traffic to and from Europe only reaches 61% of total traffic. This figure can be explained by thehe enormous proportion of Africa. This generates 19% of passenger movements in France. Nevertheless, these figures show that Europe has what it takes to withstand today's turbulence. Political circles would do well to remember this...