We've been talking about it for several months, but theASEAN seem to be having bad luck with events. Praised by the WHO for its control of the pandemic, the group of ten ASEAN countries (Burma, Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam) seemed to have the spread of the virus well under control. By March 2020, all these countries had closed their borders in unison to contain the virus. This strategy has resulted in very low contamination and mortality rates compared with Europe.
However, since the beginning of March, the pandemic regains a certain vigourr with the English variant. This could jeopardise a possible lifting of travel restrictions.
The tourism industry vital for ASEAN
More than anywhere else, ASEAN is heavily dependent on tourism. In its studies, the WTTC (World Tourism and Travel Council) indicates that worldwide tourism and travel generate 10.4 % of GDP and 10 % of jobs. In theASEAN, these rates are even higher, at 12.8 % and 14.2%but with significant differences from one country to another. For Cambodia, the Philippines and Thailand, the travel industry represents between 20 % and 25 % of GDP and more than 21 % of jobs.. By contrast, Burma, Brunei and Indonesia are the least dependent on tourism, with the sector accounting for no more than 6TP3T of GDP in these three countries.
Over the last twenty years, tourism has become for many the spearhead of the economy, particularly in Cambodia and Thailand. Reopening the region to travellers is therefore essential, especially as many of the ASEAN countries also benefit from significant international investment. However, by banning flights or imposing strict quarantines, these countries are cutting themselves off economically from the rest of the planet. And they are helping to plunge some of their populations into poverty.
Living in autarky is certainly possible in countries such as Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam, all of which have long been politically and economically isolated. But what about Singapore, the region's financial hub ? Or the Thailand, commercial and economic hub of the Mekong sub-region ?
And yet.., the response of ASEAN as an economic entity has so far been inaudible, if not non-existent. No coordination has been put in place for a gradual reopening of borders or for a health strategy. All in the name of a inalienable principle of non-intervention in the internal affairs of another country; a practice which, in most cases, turns the association into an empty shell.
Common vaccination passport and Chinese influences
However, it would appear that lines are finally moving. In March, ASEAN economics ministers discussed the possibility of launching a regional digital health passport. Such a move would make it possible to achieve a Intra-ASEAN "travel bubble", while, for the time being, borders remain virtually hermetic. Only Singapore and Malaysia had set up a travel corridor last year, but this was cut short by the return of the pandemic.
The idea of a digital medical passport in ASEAN will have to face a road full of pitfalls. Many regional governments are reluctant to disclose personal data. They fear that this information could be used for purposes other than those related to the pandemic.
By their very nature, the ten member countries remain extremely distrustful of each other. Local nationalism plays its part, but not only that. China's influence on certain ASEAN countries is another factor to be taken into consideration. Over the past decade, Cambodia and Laos have become de facto Chinese "Trojan horses" within ASEAN, with large sums of money and infrastructure. This allows Chinese leaders to regularly influence ASEAN's decisions.
The ministers' proposal may therefore never materialise, lack of consensus. Unless ASEAN produces a similar document to the future EU green digital certificate. The European document could serve as a basis for its Asian counterpart, particularly in terms of data confidentiality. Such a certificate could also be extended to non-ASEAN travellers who have been vaccinated so that they can once again travel within member countries.
In the meantime, opening borders in the region is a step-by-step process. But in dispersed order. The Thailand and theIndonesia have announced a gradual reopening to international visitors, with health restrictions eased or even abolished. Indonesia, for example, wants to allow international visitors to Bali in July, and Thailand wants to do the same at Phuket on the same date. Other destinations will follow by autumn.
From his side, Singapore has decided to return to hosting larger-scale MICE events from 27 April. It's a first step, even if the City-State estimates that international tourism will remain at low levels in 2021. A more than realistic prediction...
