Roland Berger forecasts that business travel by air will be affected for a long time to come

" Travellers' appetite for long-distance travel has changed forever "This is the conclusion, definitive to say the least, drawn by Roland Berger in its latest report. The consultancy estimates that, once the pandemic has passed, the number of personal trips will have reduced by 20 %. As for the business travelit should be hit even harder: " With the global adoption of videoconferencing, business travel is expected to fall even further, according to the same survey: we forecast a 24 % drop in long-distance travel in the US and Europe, and a 21 % drop in China. ". These figures are based on the testimonies of some 7,000 travellers in the three markets mentioned.

air travel and business travel will be the slowest sectors to recover

Admittedly, the report is counting on a post-Covid "revenge travel" effect: " Once the pandemic is over, (...) the number of trips should increase by 1%, as travellers catch up and become impatient to travel. ". But the desert crossing into which market players have been plunged for nearly two years is likely to prove particularly long-lasting, according to Roland Berger, whose report forecasts that " air travel and business travel will be the slowest sectors to recover, according to our data, with business travel in Europe not reaching 2019 levels until 2030 ".

For the authors of the report, this more than sluggish recovery can be explained in particular by a "visio effect particularly notable in the field of business travel. If " videoconferencing cannot replace holidays or personal meetings with friends and family "As Roland Berger reminds us, ". organisations have increasingly adopted videoconferencing, dematerialising a wide range of economic, educational and civic activities ". The authors continue: " Teleworking, telemedicine, remote education and remote courts are just some of the use cases. For example, China's Ministry of Land and Resources is using a digital platform to remotely connect employees across 34 sites, and videoconferencing is already being used in the UK courts. ".

business travellers will venture away from the office less often, but for longer

The other obstacle to the resumption of business travel has the merit of wearing an eco-responsible veneer. According to Roland Berger, " traveller awareness, green sustainability and mobility innovation will significantly change the demand for long-distance travel in the future ". And the authors of the report put a figure on the direct impact of this green card: " La awareness of the impact of travel coupled with a rationalisation of travel is set to continue, leading in itself to a 12% fall in business travel expected in Europe after the pandemic ". For Didier Bréchemier, partner at Roland Berger, " demand will be different - for example, people will travel more by train over certain distances, passengers will be looking for environmentally-friendly airlines and business travellers will venture away from the office less often, but for longer. ".