The Chinese authorities' decision this Tuesday morning to recommend that people stop travelling abroad will have serious consequences for their health. consequences extremely negative on the economicThe tourism industry is obviously at the forefront. In 2018, the number of Chinese travelling abroad reached 149 millionagainst 10.5 million in 2000. Above all, in 2018 these travellers spent more than 277 billion dollarsThis is far, far ahead of spending by the Americans (144.2 billion dollars), the Germans (94.2 billion dollars) and of course the French (47.9 billion $). A windfall that is currently evaporating.
While Asia will be the continent most affected by the temporary disappearance of Chinese visitors (there were, for example, over 51 million Chinese in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region in 2018 and over 10.5 million in Thailand), Europe will not be spared. According to the China Tourism Academy (CTA), more than six million trips by Chinese visitors were recorded to Europe in 2018, while in the first six months of 2019, this figure was up by almost 8%. Europe is the fastest growing destination for Chinese travellers, second only to Asia.
Nearly two million Chinese travelled to Western Europe in 2018, the highest number ever recorded. France making it one of the five most popular countries along with Italy, the UK, the Netherlands and Switzerland, according to CTA. In 2018 and the first half of 2019, France was the number one MICE destination for the Chineseaccording to CTA.
The influx of Chinese tourists to the European continent explains the increasing number of overhead lines direct flights to and from Europe. According to theChinese civil aviation CAAC, in 2019, there were 140 overhead lines between China and Europe, including 101 operated by Chinese airlines. Chinese carriers accounted for approximately 55% capacity in seats last year.
According to the latest CAAC statistics from 2018, 15 million passengers travelled by air between China and Europe. This number is increasing by around 10 % a year, and 2019 is likely to be no exception to this growth rate.
Airborne growth halted by the virus
The expansion of air traffic between Europe and China has accelerated since 2015, with a 77% increase in the number of lines. According to a study by the UK-based Aviation Research Institute, this sharp increase in traffic is mainly due to rapid development of the Chinese economy. As the purchasing power of a growing number of Chinese increases, so does the number of travellers to Europe. The number of direct flights linking Chinese cities to European cities rose to 34 in 2018, and 80 % of the new air links opened since 2017 involve secondary Chinese cities.
In 2019, four new Chinese airlines and six other Chinese cities benefited from new routes to Europe, Air China having opened a Beijing-Nice last year. The Group Air France-KLM is present in six cities in mainland China, including the secondary cities of Hangzhou (KLM) and Wuhan (Air France). Paris CDG is in fact one of Europe's main gateways to China, with almost three million passengers and five companies airlines offering 200 weekly flights.
The European operators most active in China include the Lufthansa group and Finnair, while on the Chinese side, all the airlines of the HNA Group (including Hainan Airlines and Beijing Capital Airways) dominate with 31 routes, followed by Air China and its subsidiary Shenzhen Airlines with 29 routes, China Southern/Xiamen with 19 routes and China Eastern with 18 routes.
The disappearance of Chinese tourists, who often represent up to 80% of all passengerscould jeopardise these routes to secondary cities. It would be difficult to make a Frankfurt-Shenyang or an Amsterdam-Xiamen route profitable.
In 2019, an air trade cooperation agreement was signed between China and Europe, allowing any European Union airline to fly to China from any EU city. If the European Union were to finalise an agreement on official cooperation with China in the New Silk Roads (Belt and Road Initiative)It would certainly be accompanied by an increase in air links between the two continents. Marseille for example, is in line to become the maritime bridgehead of the Silk Road for the Western Mediterranean. However, France and Germany are still reluctant to play an active part in the New Silk Roads. For the time being, the coronavirus epidemic remains the most serious threat to the region. a grain of sand in this beautiful mechanism of growth.
