In addition to the current shutdown and its impact on air travel in the United States, budget cuts by federal and local agencies have been weighing on the results of the US hotel industry for several months now. In a climate of austerity in public spending and the forced departure of many civil servants, the sector is seeing the collapse of a traditionally stable and predictable source of revenue: government travel. This has had a domino effect on local economies, since hotels are not the only ones affected. Restaurants, public transport and other services used to the regular presence of travelling civil servants are also suffering from a stricter government travel policy.
While the budgetary paralysis was not yet in effect, the results for the third quarter of 2025 illustrate this drastic fall, which the shutdown, which came into effect on 1 October, is likely to exacerbate still further. According to the British group IHG, which is widely represented across the Atlantic, particularly with its Holiday Inns, government travel continues to be " around 20% lower than the previous year" said Michael Glover, Chief Financial Officer, at the presentation of the quarterly results. For Marriott, " Government travel down 15% year-on-year" said Anthony Capuano, the Group's CEO, on the conference call following the announcement of the results.
Establishments in the economy and mid-range segments, traditionally favoured by government employees on business trips, are the most affected by the situation. Wyndham boss Geoffrey Ballotti noted that the " weaker demand in the lower segments "in the United States largely reflected ". reducing government travel" . This contributed to a 5% decline in revenue per room at the group's US hotels in the third quarter, while the fall in government spending is one of the causes cited by Hilton to explain a 2.3% drop in RevPAR over the same period in the US.
Less travel by civil servants, but also fewer international travellers this summer: all of this put together, the STR analyst predicts that demand in the United States will fall by -0.1% over 2025 as a whole, while the average price increase will be limited to +0.8%. " The situation has changed considerably since the new administration took office, and the uncertainty and instability that followed have been the main drivers behind the change from optimism at the start of the year to the current situation in the hotel industry. "says the company in its Market Forecasts study.
While Washington's hotel industry recorded a decline in revenue per room of -6.7% over the period April to September 2025 vs 2024, and -7.6% for the month of October alone, it was not the only market to suffer. Among the Top 25 US cities, Atlanta, Houston, Miami, New Orleans and Tampa all posted even bigger falls.
However, and this is fortunate for American groups, government travel is not the only vector of activity on the other side of the Atlantic, and its decline can be offset by other sources of clientele, in particular high-end tourists, but also business travellers. With a sort of public-private scissor effect: " Large companies show encouraging strength "However, there are still some ". concerns among some SMEs as they try to navigate a volatile economic environment ".
In fact, IHG recorded growth of +21TP3Q for the corporate segment in the United States, and Elie Maalouf, its CEO, was confident about the future in response to a question from a financial analyst: " Travel trends remain fairly solid. You have seen Amex's results for the third quarter. Airlines are reporting a solid fourth quarter. Passenger volumes are still growing, according to the Transport Security Administration, despite the shutdown. ".
As for next year on the other side of the Atlantic, Christopher Nassetta, CEO of the Hilton Group, sees it under favourable auspices. There will be the mid-term elections, synonymous with a great deal of activity, with elections that are shaping up to be very important. In every state, people will be out and about, raising money and campaigning. That's good for business. There will also be the 250e anniversary of the United States, which will be a year-long celebration. You'll have the football World Cup. All these elements will be beneficial."
