With the confinements and restrictions that have still disrupted much of 2021, the French hotel industry has come through a year that has been judged to be "a very difficult one". complex "By Olivier Petit, partner at In Extenso Tourism, Culture and Hospitality. Unsurprisingly, revenue per overall room - RevPAR - is still a long way from returning to 2019 levels, down 37 % compared with this period, due to a 38 pts drop in occupancy rates. This represents a relative improvement compared to 2020 (-55 %). Unsurprisingly, entry-level hotels proved the most resilient, with sales down by 'only' -24 %, compared with -37 % for the economy segment and declines of slightly more than -45 % for top-of-the-range and luxury hotelswhich has been hardest hit by the lack of foreign visitors and the cancellation of major conferences.
As well as segmentation, the analysis highlights different outlooks for different destinations. The cities most dependent on international tourism and MICE activity, such as Paris, Nice and Strasbourg, have seen RevPAR from open hotels remain 40% lower than in 2019, while the major cities with mixed segmentation, such as Bordeaux, Lyon and Toulouse, have seen a decline of -35%. At the same time, Rennes, Nantes and Lille, which focus on a more domestic clientele and individual business travellers, limited the decline to -30%, while the cities that fared best were those that added a leisure dimension to their domestic positioning, such as Marseille and Montpellier, which saw a decline of only -20%.
Although the sector has not yet finished licking its wounds after two years of global health crisis, the results presented by In Extenso show a gradual recovery. These early signs include " reassuring about the resilience of the French hotel industry "According to the consultancy firm, hotel occupancy improved from the summer onwards, due to the tourist clientele in coastal destinations, but also thanks to the " A clear upturn in the seminar market "This good seminar business, combined with the gradual return of American customers, although not to the same levels as in the past, gradually improved the performance of the Paris hotel sector in the second half of the year. With this good seminar business and a gradual return of American customers, albeit not to the volumes seen in the past, the performance of the Paris hotel sector gradually improved in the second half of the year, particularly for upmarket and luxury establishments.
Another reason for satisfaction for hoteliers is that average prices have started to rise again, and are even higher than in 2019 (+2%). So there's no price war, which in any case would not have brought in more customers, particularly from long-haul destinations. " We note that momentum from autumn onwardsThis will continue until the arrival of the Omicron wave, with the curves tending to narrow towards 2019 levels.says Olivier Petit. This outlook for the end of the crisis is encouraging. "
In view of all these factors, and taking into account the large number of hotel openings planned for this year - with 4,000 new rooms expected in the Île-de-France region and 6,000 in other regions - In Extenso forecasts thatin 2022, RevPAR will fall by 10% in Paris and by only 3% on the Côte d'Azur and in the provinces. Hotel activity will be marked by three main phases: a first quarter penalised by health constraints linked to the Omicron variant, a second phase until the end of the summer in which hotel occupancy will increase but will still be penalised by a still limited congress activity and an absence of long-haul customers, and finally a third period from the autumn onwards with a catch-up of 2019 levels. There could even be a reversal of the trend, especially as the end of 2019 was marked by a number of strikes and a tense social climate.
As far as business customers are concerned, Olivier Petit notes a real dynamic recovery in seminar activity : " With confinement and teleworking, companies need to re-establish social links with their customers and employees, who are not always in the office at the same time. Some of the losses on individual business travel will be offset by this seminar clientele."
