Were you surprised by the results of the Air monitor report and its tariff forecasts for 2023?
Adrien Cannes - The increases in air fares that we have seen this year, particularly over the last five or six months when the recovery has been stronger, were mainly due to a confluence of factors that have created a particular conjuncture for price trends: the volumes and the speed of the requestfor both leisure and business travel. labour shortages which have had an impact on the airlines' ability to bring back or restore capping capacity levelsthe flights and seats they wanted in response to strong demand; and with the soaring oil prices and therefore kerosene earlier in the year with the situation in Ukrainewhich represent between 15 and 30% of a traditional airline's operating costs, and which continue to be significantly higher than a year ago, airlines have decided to cover part of the costs by increasing fuel surcharges on airline tickets. Visit 2023We expect some of these factors to be mitigated.
How does this price rise compare with pre-crisis levels?
Adrien Cannes - In most regions of the world, prices in 2023 will be significantly higher than in 2019, with prices in 2022 already higher than in 2019.
To what extent can these price increases contain demand for business travel in 2023?
Adrien Cannes - GBT Consulting's forecasts are based on empirical modelling over several years before, during and after Covid, taking into account changes in Corporate and Leisure demand, airline capacity, changes in the price of paraffin, market competitiveness and a number of macroeconomic indicators. In addition, regulatory trends and the airlines' long-term strategies have been taken into account in order to adjust the forecasts. These price increase forecasts will have an impact on certain travel decisions, but will not modify the fundamental need for people to travel, connect or reconnect face-to-face - for leisure as for business.
What levers can companies activate to deal with this phenomenon?
Adrien Cannes - The Air Monitor report sets out the key elements of a strategy for managing your airline programme, which will enable you to develop and protect it despite the ups and downs. In the short term, we recommend that customers focus on encouraging travellers to anticipate bookingsThis will not only mitigate cost increases, but also offer travellers a more attractive travel experience. best choice of flights and seatsbecause demand remains strong. For reasons of sustainability (and cost), customers may consider combine several trips into oneWe will also be looking at other modes of transport, such as rail, where possible. Finally, to strengthen 'preferred' partnerships with companies in our customers' programme in order to control costs as much as possible in exchange for market share.
What role can a TMC play in 2023 in this context?
Adrien Cannes - TMCs play a very important role for customers. GBT has close and extensive relationships with suppliers such as airlines, hotels and car rental companies around the world. These relationships bring considerable added value to customers and travellers through access to reductions and special ratesas well as service benefits.
Is this price rise sustainable?
Adrien Cannes - We expect prices to rise in 2023, but in most regions of the world the increases will be more limited, lower than those we are currently seeing in 2022. The air travel market will be subject to technological innovations and regulatory which will have an impact on the commercial strategy of airlines.
