IATA has just drawn up a review of its members' activity in 2020. The association, which brings together 290 airlines - representing 82% of all capacities - has recorded a 75.6% drop in passenger demand on an international level compared with 2019. Expressed in terms of revenue/passenger/km (RPK), the fall was 85% on international routes..
The decline was less marked on domestic lines, with a 43% fall in RPK. Domestic demand down 48.81TP3Q compared to 2019.
As a result, the capacity (measured in available seat kilometres or ASKs) fell from 68,1 % and the filling coefficient fell 19.2 points to 62,8 %. On domestic routes, capacity fell by 35.7 % and the load factor dropped 17 points to 66.6 %.
This is theAfrica which showed the better resilience. Traffic expressed in RPK fell by 69.8% on international routes. L'Latin America and the Middle East followed Africa with a contained fall in traffic to 71.8% and 72.9% respectively. L'North America is down 75.4% in RPK. However, in Asia-Pacific that we note the worst results. International RPK traffic collapsed by 80.3%, with several countries completely closing their air access to the rest of the world.
In 2021, air traffic would reach 50% of the 2019 level in the best case scenario
As for theEuropeit experienced a 73.7% drop in traffic expressed in RPK over 2020. The continent will certainly have benefited from a recovery in the summer of 2020. But the return of the virus from autumn onwards is now weighing on air traffic in Europe. In December 2020, the traffic was down 82.7% compared with the same month in 2019. January and February 2021 look set to be even worse...
The reservations for future trips made in January 2021 have in fact reduced by 70 % compared with the previous year. The decline was contained at 60% in December. Weak demand is expected to put greater pressure on airlines' cash positions and could affect the timing of the expected recovery.
The first IATA forecasts for 2021 are forecasting a 50.4 % improvement in demand in 2020. It would enable the airline industry to return to 50.6 % of its 2019 levels. However, this return to 50%'s pre-covid capabilities could be called into question if new restrictions are introduced. In particular, with the development of new variants of the virus.
If such a scenario were to materialise, the improvement in the request could be limited to 13 % only compared to 2020 levels. Air transport could then represent only 38% of its 2019 performance.
