Air travel (almost) risk-free according to the air transport industry

L'International Air Transport Association IATA continues to push
governments to take decisions based on rational data in the management of the Covid-19 pandemic with the aim of reopening borders.

IATA is still campaigning for suspension of quarantine measuresthe main obstacle to a resumption of international travel. The association bases its arguments on scientific data proving that the absence of quarantine has little effect on a higher Covid risk in the destination country.

" The data should guide policies for restarting travel in the
world, based on Covid-19 risk management to protect people and stimulate economies. We call on G7 governments to
agree on how the data will be used. The aim is to plan and
to coordinate in a secure way the restoration of freedom to travel. A freedom that is so important for people, jobs and businesses "said Willie Walsh, Director General of IATA.

Scientific institutes recommend vaccination

IATA relies on evidence from scientific institutes showing that vaccinated people are protected against severe forms of the disease and its mortality rate. The risk of the virus being introduced by vaccinated people in the destination country is therefore minimal..

● In Germany, l'Robert Koch Institute (RKI) concludes that vaccinated travellers no longer represent a significant risk of spreading the disease and that they do not represent a significant risk to the German population.
● The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) issued interim guidance on the benefits of full vaccination, stating that "the likelihood of an infected vaccinated person transmitting the disease is currently
considered to be low or even very low".
● Aux United Statesthe Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) state that "if an effective 90 % vaccine is available, pre- and post-travel testing and voluntary seven-day quarantine add only minimal benefit".
● Au CanadaThe Covid-19 Expert Advisory Committee on Testing and Screening
recommends that vaccinated travellers do not need to undergo quarantine.
● A study by the public health agency of england concluded that two doses of anti-covid vaccine are highly effective against the variants.

Screening for unvaccinated travellers

According to IATA, there is a possibility that unvaccinated people could be banned from travelling. A measure that would be considered an unacceptable exclusion and, in fact, not very effective.

In fact, the National Health Service in the United Kingdom on international travellers entering the United Kingdom (without reference to the status of
vaccination) show that the vast majority pose no risk of introduction
of Covid-19 after their arrival.

Between 25 February and 5 May 2021, 365,895 tests were carried out on passengers arriving in the UK, all of whom tested negative before their journey. Only
2.2 % tested positive for infection during their compulsory quarantine. Of these, more than half came from countries on the "red list". If these passengers from high-risk areas are excluded from the statistics, the positive rate is only 1.46 %. Of the 103,473 passengers arriving from European Union countries (excluding Ireland), 1.35 % tested positive for Covid.

" A number of governments continue to impose a universal quarantine, either in hotels or self-managed. This discourages international travel and puts a strain on
jobs in the travel and tourism sectors. Almost 98 % of people in quarantine in the UK tested negative. We now have more than a year's worth of global data that can help governments make more targeted decisions about international travel."said Willie Walsh.

Airbus reveals low risk of co-contamination when travelling

IATA has joined Airbus and Boeing to demonstrate possible methodologies for managing Covid-19 risks. They prove that it is possible to reconcile public health safety with air travel. Airbus and Boeing have analysed the potential impact of international travellers on risk management.

Airbus has taken into account more than 50 variables in its model (such as the number of confirmed cases and deaths per country, Covid-19 screening strategies, traffic statistics, flight times, time spent in the terminal, in-flight service arrangements and air treatment). These assumptions are based on more than a dozen data sources (including the United States and the World Health Organisation).

The results of this modelling are supported by data from the
actual results and travel observations. Airbus did not take vaccinated travellers into accountwhich would only reduce the risk of infection.

The study concludes that :
● From a high-incidence country to a medium-incidence country - Latin America and the Caribbean (292 cases per 100,000 population) to Canada (95 cases per 100,000). Assuming the same level of traffic as in 2019 and without testing, the incidence in Canada would increase by only 1 case per 100,000 population due to imported cases over 14 days. With a single PCR test before travel, this number falls to less than 1 case per 100,000.
● From a medium-incidence country to a medium-incidence country - Europe (111 cases per 100,000 inhabitants) to the United States (81 cases per 100,000). Assuming the same volume of traffic as before the pandemic and without testing, the Airbus model predicts that air travel over 14 days would add less than one imported case per 100,000 to the incidence in the United States.
● From a medium-incidence country to a low-incidence country - Europe (111 cases per 100,000 inhabitants) to Singapore (8 cases per 100,000). Assuming the same volume of traffic as in 2019 and without testing, the model predicts that over 14 days, just over one additional case per 100,000 people would be recorded locally in Singapore. With a pre-travel PCR test, this number falls to less than one case.

The Airbus model shows that the risk of transmission and translocation of the virus can be considerably reduced by adopting screening and protection measures.

Boeing favours screening

Boeing has modelled the effectiveness of screening strategies. The American aircraft manufacturer believes that screening protocols offer an alternative to quarantine for a number of travel scenarios. The model assessed the effectiveness of passenger screening and quarantine in several countries around the world. It takes into account
various factors, including pre-existing levels of Covid-19 in the countries of origin and destination, the effectiveness of PCR and antigenic tests, and the chronology of the infection.
disease (how the disease progresses) in passengers with Covid when travelling. The experience of Canada and Iceland in the management of tests and vaccines was used to establish these data analyses.

A number of conclusions have been drawn:
● Filtering protocols are proving as effective as a 14-day quarantine.
● Filtering protocols reduce the risk for the destination country.
● Filtering is more advantageous for journeys from high-incidence areas to low-prevalence areas.

" Covid-19 is an evil that we must learn to manageas we do with other health threats. In our societies, we accept many things even though we know they carry risks, whether it's drinking alcohol or driving a car. We do not prohibit these activities. What we do do is establish the common-sense rules and information needed to make sensible decisions about managing these risks. The post-pandemic future will require us to do the same for the coronavirus, so that we can all get on with our lives.. Vaccination will play a big part. And the data tells us that screening protocols can make travel accessible and safe for everyone. "concludes Willie Walsh.