Poland remains the darling of investors in general and hotel chains in particular. The country has one of the best economic performances in the European Union. In 2019, GDP grew by 4.7% compared with 1.6% in the rest of the Union. Last year, GDP did fall as a result of the pandemic. But the decline was 'only' 2.7%, compared with 6.1% for the 27-member EU. Economic experts at the OECD put the country's growth at 3.7% in 2021, while the European Union is forecasting +4.9%.
Economic growth is stimulated by the consumption of a young, well-educated population and by the dynamism of the major cities - Warsaw, Lodz, Krakow, Wroclaw, Poznan and Gdansk. The government and the European Union support a massive investment programme to modernise infrastructure. 1,500 km of new expressways are under construction and 2,000 km are in the planning stage. New airports are being built, while the rail network continues to be modernised, in particular with high-speed lines.
This economic dynamism has stimulated travel consumption over the last decade, both domestically and internationally.
Poland remains an attractive destination for property investors, according to a report by Horwath HTL. This is reflected in the growth in the country's hotel supply. The Horwath HTL report shows that the number of hotels has increased by almost 7 % and the total number of rooms by more than 12 % between 2016 and 2019.
Covid not expected to dent long-term growth prospects
Covid certainly broke this momentum somewhat last year. The number of overnight stays in Polish hotels halved in 2020, from 44.8 million to 23 million. For the first time, hotel supply actually fell. According to data from Poland's Central Statistical Office, there were 137 fewer hotels in 2020 than the previous year, a drop of almost 5,400 rooms.
The year 2021 is still a mixed bag. The Polish hotel industry was only able to reopen in May with a capacity of 50% and then 75%.. According to the consultant STR, the occupancy rate for the first few months of 2021 was less than 20%...
But it seems that this was just a blip in the road, and the hotel industry is once again expecting excellent growth prospects in 2022.
The proof is in the pudding: Horwath HTL notes that chain hotels continued to grow last year, despite a fall in the total number of properties. The hotels of international channels went from 198 units in 2018 to 200 in 2019, finally reaching 225 last year.
For Horwath HTL, the Polish market has become a coveted destination for international hotel groups over the last decade. The top five international hotel chains (by number of hotel rooms) are Accor/Orbis, Hilton Worldwide, Louvre Hotel Group, Best Western and Marriott..
The flood of international channels
Over the last five years, Poland has seen the arrival of new brands, through acquisitions or franchises. These include Motel One, Ibis Styles (Accor), Indigo Hotel (IHG), AC by Marriott, Moxy, Four Points by Sheraton (Marriott International), Renaissance (Marriott International), Metropolo by Golden Tulip (LHG), Leonardo Hotel and NYX (Leonardo Hotels) and Crowne Plaza (IHG)..
Over the next few years new brands such as Vib, Sadie (Best Western), Occidental (Barceló Group), Residence Inn, Autograph Collection, Tribute (Marriott International), Radisson RED and Mövenpick (Accor) are about to enter the market.
According to Horwath HTL, Poland's major cities, particularly Warsaw, are seeing an influx of new properties.
Based on current forecasts, by 2023, more than 26 new hotels are due to open in Warsawcreating an additional 5,473 hotel rooms. This would represent an increase of 33 % compared with the current supply of rooms..
Another destination coveted by the networks is the Tri-City area, comprising Gdansk, Gdynia and Sopot along the Baltic Sea. Over the next three years, 16 new hotels are due to open, creating a new offering of more than 2,336 hotel roomsThis represents a jump of 32 % compared with the current number of hotel units.
Finally, international chains are also interested in setting up in leisure destinations. In 2020, a Radisson Blu was opened in Szklarska Poręba and another Radisson was announced for Ostróda (Masurie district). In addition, two Mövenpick hotels are planned. The first in 2022 in the mountainous region of Zakopane. The second in 2023 in Kołobrzeg, on the southern coast of the Baltic Sea.
