Moderate growth in hotel rates next year: these are the forecasts for the major business destinations from American Express GBT, as part of its Hotel Monitor 2026 study. A crystal ball based on tangible elements, starting with TMC's internal data, in particular its hotel reservation platform, combined with the International Monetary Fund's inflation and GDP forecasts. " This year's forecasts reveal a nuanced global environment in which the geopolitical uncertainties temper increases in hotel rates "said Dan Beauchamp, Vice-President of Consulting at Amex GBT.
In addition to geopolitical instability, economic conditions may be affected by US tariffs". limiting demand and restricting major price increases "says the Amex GBT study. This is particularly true in the United States, where the TMC is forecasting limited growth in hotel rates". due to a slowdown in incoming demand ". In addition, imported products are expected to rise in price by up to +2.6 %. Hence the advice given by TMC to travel buyers regarding American hotels in 2026: " perhaps we should leave breakfast out of the negotiations ".
Despite this mixed outlook and falling tourist arrivals, a key destination like New York sees its hotels retaining some room for manoeuvre, with customers expected to see a rate increase of +4.0 % in 2026. This is slightly less than that forecast for Toronto (+5.8 %), despite the growth in hotel supply in the Canadian city. Conversely, strong hotel development in Mexican destinations should result in more moderate price rises, particularly in Mexico City (+2.0 %).
While the travel agency expects prices for top-of-the-range accommodation to continue rising " due to growing demand "This forecast is expected to be more favourable than in the past, particularly for luxury hotels. be felt in Europe. Nonetheless, given the generally moderate economic growth, establishments in most of the continent's business destinations are likely to see only limited fare increases in 2026, particularly in Paris, where Amex GBT expects growth of +2.4 1TP3Q.
In London, despite a large number of hotels still to open, the increase is expected to exceed 4 %, driven by the rise in employers' insurance contributions, which will result in higher wage costs for hotels throughout the UK. Similarly, " the increase in VAT should lead to a substantial rise in fares in the Netherlands "says Amex GBT. Another factor noted by the TMC is the tightening of the regulations on short-term lettings could work in favour of hoteliers in the future, with a growing impact on accommodation costs, particularly in Amsterdam and Barcelona.
Significant increases in India and South America
Among the destinations where business travellers and their companies should expect fairly substantial increases in hotel prices, South America's main destinations are at the top of the list with a +5.0 % increase expected in 2026 in Rio de Janeiro and +5.6 % in Buenos Aires, as Argentina's economy rebounds. In Africa, Cape Town is also expected to see a price increase of 4.7 %, as demand outstrips the supply of business hotels that meet security requirements.
But the biggest increases in fares are expected in the Indian metropolises. For Amex GBT, India is " the country to watch " as part of the negotiation of travel programmes, " forecasts for hotel rates and occupancy rates continuing their upward trajectory ". Already growing strongly this year, this increase is set to continue in 2026, with a rise of +5.3 % in Mumbai, +5.7 % in Hyderabad and even +6.8 % in Delhi and +6.4 % in Bengaluru, driven by the economic dynamism of India's Silicon Valley. This contrasts with the situation in China, where the hotel industry has been struggling for several years, with Amex GBT forecasting slightly lower rates in Guangzhou and Hong Kong this year, while rates are expected to remain stable in Shanghai and Shenzhen.
In Tokyo, as in Singapore and Auckland, business travellers should expect prices to rise around 2 %slightly less in Sydney (+1.5 %). These increases are similar to those forecast by Amex GBT for the major destinations in the Middle East, such as Doha (+1.4 %), Dubai (+2.0 %) and Riyadh, where hotel development is in full swing (+2.3 %), with Abu Dhabi (+3.1 %) expected to see a higher rise.
While highlighting the merits of its hotel platform, which gives access to over two million establishments in 180 countries, and its Preferred Extras Hotel programme, the study aims to create opportunities for travel buyers as underlined by Dan Beauchamp: " This information enables companies to make better-informed travel decisions in an increasingly complex environment. "
