2026 will once again be a good year for the world's airlines. That's the message from IATA, the International Air Transport Association. Despite a global and economic context that is far from serene, IATA predicts that in 2026 airlines will post a net margin of 3.9 % and an overall profit of 41 billion dollars.
A very encouraging outlook, given the challenges that continue to shake the sector. And there are countless of them, according to Willie Walsh, IATA's Director General. In his report, he mentions, in no particular order, the bottlenecks in the aeronautical supply chain - with a deficit between aircraft orders and deliveries that is hard to overcome - as well as persistent geopolitical tensions, weak world trade and a regulatory framework that is becoming increasingly complex - particularly in Europe.
But for Willie Walsh, the economic and political environment shows that companies have been able to build up a certain capacity to adapt, strengthening their resilience with shock-absorbing mechanisms that now support stable overall profitability. However, there remains a major structural problem. The airline industry is still not generating sufficient profits to fully cover the cost of capital. This complicates long-term investments.
Revenues growing faster than expenditure
For 2026, IATA expects global revenues to rise by 4.5 % to reach 1,053 billion dollars. Operating expenses are expected to rise by 4.2 %, to 981 billion, leading to a slight improvement in net profit. A good result in a sluggish global economy. World growth is expected to hold steady at 3.1 %, inflation to fall slightly to 3.7 %, while international trade is expected to remain extremely weak, with growth limited to 0.5 %.
Passenger revenues are estimated at $751 billion, up 4.8 %. This growth will be driven by a 4.9 % increase in revenue/passenger/km (RPK). The load factor is expected to reach an all-time high of 83.8 %. IATA considers this to be artificially high, explaining that it is linked to the persistent shortage of aircraft, which prevents airlines from adjusting their offer more quickly.
Ancillary revenues would rise to 145 billion (+5.5 %), representing almost 14 % of total revenues, a higher level than before the pandemic. Freight would generate 158 billion (+2.1 %).
An aircraft fleet whose age continues to rise
On the cost side, fuel costs are expected to fall slightly in 2026, to USD 252 billion (-0.3 %). Crude oil is expected to trade at around $62 a barrel, while paraffin will fall modestly to $88. The weight of fuel purchases would therefore fall from 26.8% to 25.7 % of total expenditure between 2025 and 2026.
Efficiency gains, limited to 1 %, reflect the difficulties faced by aircraft manufacturers in increasing production. And this is naturally putting the brakes on fleet renewals. The average age worldwide will thus pass the 15 years mark, a real (but sad) record!
The implementation of policies to reduce emissions through offsetting and the use of sustainable fuel will weigh a little more heavily in the balance in 2026. The cost of compliance with the international CORSIA scheme (Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation) applied in European regulations will reach 1.7 billion dollars, compared with 1.3 billion this year. The purchase of sustainable aviation fuels will generate an additional cost of 4.5 billion dollars for an expected production of 2.4 million tonnes (0.8 % of requirements). In Europe, the entry into force of SAF mixing obligations will also increase costs.
Non-fuel costs, on the other hand, will climb to 729 billion (+5.8 %) as a result of sharply rising salaries (28% of total expenditure), stagnating productivity, an ageing fleet which makes maintenance more expensive, and rising airport and navigation charges. Nevertheless, IATA notes that non-American airlines and those not linked to the dollar could benefit from a slight fall in the greenback.
Risks, obstacles and opportunities
The supply chain continues to limit capacity growth. Despite more deliveries scheduled for 2026, the pace of new orders is outstripping production, feeding an already saturated backlog and prolonging tensions for several years. Last October, IATA reported a historic backlog of 17,000 aircraft...
As for infrastructure, there will be little change by 2026. In the United States, the planned modernisation of air traffic management would nevertheless be a major step forward. In Europe, several hubs are still being penalised by costly projects or by management that is deemed inefficient.
Geopolitical conflicts also continue to disrupt operations: airspace closures, GNSS interference and imposed detours increase costs and reduce operational efficiency.
Contrasting regional dynamics
On a continental basis, Europe is set to break away from the rest of the world, despite the constraints imposed by political bodies. Which, unfortunately for passengers, could provide yet another argument for legislators who continue to see air transport as a quick and easy way to make money.
As a result, the continent would post the best financial performance in absolute terms, thanks to an exemplary discipline in terms of capacity and the dynamism of low-cost airlines.
For the rest of the world, the IATA forecasts are as follows.
In Africa, demand is growing, but unit costs - the highest in the world - are limiting profitability. Aging fleets, heavy taxation and fragmented markets are holding back results.
In Asia-Pacific, demand remains vigorous, particularly in China and India. Load factors are at historic highs, but yields remain under pressure.
In Latin America, economic stabilisation and restructuring are bearing fruit, despite high currency volatility.
In the Middle East, airlines maintained the highest margins, supported by a favourable regulatory environment and robust long-haul demand.
In North America, profitability remains strong, but the slowdown in domestic demand and operational constraints are limiting growth.
