The attack on Iran by Israel and the United States could not remain without consequences for air transport. Air fares have risen sharply for three reasons:
- The drastic reduction in air services on the major Gulf hubs (Bahrain and Kuwait remain completely closed, while Abu Dhabi, Doha and Dubai are operating at a slower pace) has resulted in a spectacular rise in fares. This applies particularly to Europe/Asia routes, but also to a lesser extent to Europe/Africa routes.
- Extending air routes to avoid the Persian Gulf.
- The rise in the price of a barrel of oil, from $70 to $100 in just a few days, was immediately passed on by the airlines in the form of fare increases or the return of a fuel surcharge. The latter had more or less disappeared a decade earlier...
The effect of the closure of Gulf hubs
The sharp reduction in activity at Gulf airports has in fact exacerbated demand in relation to supply, which is now falling. For example, aviation consultant Cirium, which analyses aircraft movements, indicates that 20 % of passengers between Europe and Asia flew on a Gulf carrier in 2025. Between the United States and Asia, this figure rises to 10%.
Airline consultant OAG recently published an analysis of the world's 20 largest airlines. The list includes British Airways, Lufthansa, Turkish Airlines, Emirates and Qatar Airways. Emirates is the fourth largest airline in the world in terms of the number of seats/km flown (ASK), while Qatar Airways is in 7th place. In 2025, Emirates served 302 routes, Qatar Airways 382. The lower number of Emirates routes is explained by the transfer of many routes to flyDubai, a low-cost carrier which has since become premium.
Emirates offered the equivalent of 74.95 million seats in 2025, including 52.1 % in the Middle East, 17.2 % in Asia, 16.8 % in Europe and 6.2 % in Africa. These last three continents accounted for 40 % of this offer.
For its part, Qatar Airways was offering 55.22 million seats in 2025, divided between 57.8 % in the Middle East, 15.3 % in Asia, 14.8 % in Europe and 5.9 % in Africa. These last three continents accounted for 35 % of the company's capacity. By way of comparison, Lufthansa's capacity on the Africa/Asia/Middle East route amounted to 5.8 % of its seat capacity last year, while British Airways offered 6.5 % of seat capacity on the same three routes.
Prices soar in the very short term
The reduction in capacity is therefore weighing on prices. Admittedly, the panic of the first few days of the war, with hundreds of thousands of people trapped in the Gulf and wanting to get home as quickly as possible, caused prices to soar to unprecedented levels. On airline booking sites or online agencies, a single ticket from Bangkok to Paris or Singapore to Frankfurt in economy class was selling for between €2,000 and €4,500.
Nevertheless, prices for the more distant future remain high. The fare for a single ticket Paris-Singapore for 21 April booked on 13 March is shown on Skyscanner to over €1,100 on a non-stop Air France or Singapore Airlines flight. However, it is possible to find cheaper flights with Chinese airlines, with a stopover. A flight from Geneva to Bangkok on the same date with a stopover costs €680 (CHF616) one way in economy class on Turkish Airlines. This compares with a minimum of €387 on Etihad via Abu Dhabi, with all the risks that may entail.
The return of fuel surcharges
This week has seen a proliferation of announcements of fare increases and fuel surcharges. Starting with Air France-KLM, which announced a €50 increase on a long-haul return ticket. Not to mention the price of the ticket itself. However, the airline says it has secured 70% of its fuel purchases over the next two quarters and 60% over the following quarter. Earlier this week, other carriers announced increases in their fares. Notably SAS, which spoke of a "temporary" increase.
Neither Lufthansa nor British Airways have yet revealed any increase in fuel surcharges. Speaking to the Al Jazeera television channel, BA even indicated that it was not considering an increase, as 80 % of its paraffin purchases are currently covered. Lufthansa CEO Carsten Spohr told the dpa press agency that the group has largely protected itself against sharp rises in paraffin prices for the current year by means of forward contracts.
It is in Asia, rather, that we are witnessing a "label waltz". Cathay Pacific, Hong Kong Airlines, Air India, Thaï Airways International, Qantas and Air New Zealand have all announced significant fare increases. Thai Airways is talking about a 10 % to 15 % fare increase, Hong Kong Airlines 35% on its paraffin surcharge, while Cathay Pacific is doubling its fuel surcharge at the same time. A single ticket between Hong Kong and Europe will now cost 129 euros instead of 62 euros. Air New Zealand has also introduced a surcharge of around €49 per journey on its long-haul routes.
However, the upward trend is unlikely to stop in the short term, given developments in the Middle East. At present, Asian and European companies are relatively sheltered from price fluctuations on the oil market. The situation could become more complex if the conflict continues for several months.
