For a week now, the question has been troubling European aviation lobbies, ACI Europe, that of the airports, and A4, that of the airlines. But it is also taken up by the media: is Europe heading towards a kerosene shortage as early as May? This question should, in fact, prompt action from the EU institutions in Brussels or the national governments of the 27.
Of course, the Strait of Hormuz blockade actually creates a shortage. Because, while Europe's oil supply is relatively little dependent on the Strait of Hormuz (around 10%), the famous strait is, on the other hand, more present in European air transport's kerosene purchases, at 50%. This is a rate that has fallen sharply. Indeed, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the Persian Gulf usually accounts for about 75 %of Europe's net kerosene imports. To compensate for the loss of supply from this region, Europe has already increased its purchases from the United States.
A considerable decline in kerosene cover
Still according to the IEA, kerosene stocks in Europe – the OECD area – nevertheless increased from 37 to 38 days of demand cover at the start of the year and are around 30 days today. The IEA estimates that about 20% % of kerosene stocks constitute an operational reserve that is difficult to mobilise without disrupting supply systems. Under these conditions, physical shortages could appear if stock cover falls below 23 days. " European markets will therefore have to intensify their efforts to attract replacement cargoes from other regions in order to maintain sufficient stock levels over the summer. warned the IAEA.
The ACI Europe airport association warned the European Commission last week that fuel shortages could become a reality in just three weeks. That's the second week of May! Some European countries even have only about twenty days of kerosene stocks.
Raising the level of "threat", ACI Europe and A4E have therefore warned of risks of flight cancellations and destruction of demand. The first signs of the crisis are, in fact, already being felt. In several European countries, airports have begun to limit fuel distribution, while airlines are already passing on increased costs to tickets, leading to a surge in prices and initial flight cancellations for less profitable routes. Concerns are rising about a possible grounding of aircraft in the coming weeks if the situation continues.
If Europe manages to replace around 75 % of the lost volumes, it should be able to meet peak summer demand, even if stocks fall below the critical threshold of 23 days by August. Even a replacement of 90 % would leave the market tight, with stocks reaching only 26 days of cover by the end of 2026.
A necessary intervention by the European Union
Faced with the risk of widespread shortages, airlines and airport operators are calling on the European Union to take emergency measures.
Among the avenues explored are the temporary suspension of certain aviation taxes to ease financial pressure, as well as a mechanism for collective purchasing of fuel on a European scale. Similar measures were put in place during the Covid-19 crisis for medical equipment, and then in 2022 for the purchase of natural gas following disruptions related to the war in Ukraine.
A common purchasing system would prevent internal competition between Member States and strengthen negotiating power in strained global markets. While this type of approach has not yet been applied to oil or kerosene, the current geopolitical context could encourage the European Commission to consider it, including for other strategic resources such as gas or fertilisers.
However, even if the strait were reopened immediately, crude oil and oil product exports would take several months to stabilise, according to the IEA. Not to mention the relatively limited refining capacity within the EU. In France, for example, the government has asked refiners to increase their production, but there is limited room for manoeuvre. Of the six metropolitan refineries, only one can currently increase its production, and only by about 10 %, which is far from compensating for the supply shock.
The uncertainty surrounding air travel thus has a psychological impact on consumer demand. Some travellers remain confident, but others fear cancellations or even a disruption of air operations. These are all factors that heavily destabilise air transport in Europe. And they call for a swift response from Brussels.
