Hong Kong has until now had the reputation of being an island of stabilitybecause of its economy, which is totally open to the rest of the planet, and its status as one of the world's most dynamic economies. gateway to China. Hong Kong's return to the bosom of the "Motherland" - as fervent patriots like to describe China - had had very little negative impact on the economy of the metropolis, the leading financial centre in the Chinese world. But the economy has now been overtaken by politics. Demonstrations marked by violence and open hostility towards the central government in Beijing are shaking the confidence of investors and visitors alike.
According to statistics from the Hong Kong Tourism Board, although the number of tourists increased again in June, the slowdown was remarkable. Tourist arrivals grew by 1.2% in June, compared with 10.2% in May. And this growth is still heavily influenced by Chinese tourist arrivals in the former British colony.
Leaving aside arrivals from mainland China, the number of tourists in June was negative, with long-haul markets posting a decline of 1.1%. The latter was still up by 0.6% in May 2019. Europe was down on the whole: the biggest declines were in Russia (-21.6%), France (-8.4%) and the UK (-5.4%). Only Germany and the Netherlands are progressing.
For the moment, only a handful of countries have issued a alert for travel to Hong Kong. These include the United Arab Emirates and Singapore, while countries such as the United Kingdom, Canada and New Zealand are urging their citizens to be careful when travelling to Hong Kong. caution. In France, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs website recommends ". respect the safety instructions issued by the local authorities, stay away from gatherings and keep abreast of developments in the situation ". However, if the violence continues, other opinions could quickly follow.
Occupancy rates down for hotels
L'hotels is beginning to feel the effects of this crisis. In June, the region's establishments recorded an occupancy rate down by three points to 87%, and the decline seems to be worsening. Hoteliers are reporting a further fall in occupancy rates by a further three to four points in July. The most pessimistic now estimate that this fall could go as far as 20% if the situation does not improve. In 2018, the average occupancy rate in hotels was 91%. Retailers, for their part, reported a falling sales of 20% on average.
As for air transport, it does not seem to be too affected by the turn of events for the time being. Total passenger numbers in June rose by 2.1%, down slightly on May's growth of 3.2%. However, this rate of growth compared with 2018 has been halved.
The figures published by Cathay Pacific and its subsidiary Cathay Dragon confirm the resilience of the airline business in the former British colony. The two airlines carried a total of 3.1 million passengers in June, up 6% on June 2018, while load factor was up 1.4 points at 86.7%. For the first six months of 2019, Cathay Group passenger numbers were up 4.4%.
Airlines affected by sluggish economic growth?
The decline could become more significant in the coming months, particularly with a 5.4% drop in bookings from Asia, as highlighted by an analysis from the consultancy firm ForwardKeys. Asian travellers are still more sensitive than their Western counterparts to safety issues on a destination. In fact, it is above all changes in GDP and the economy that could have the greatest impact on business flows and, in turn, on air transport.
At the start of the year, Hong Kong's GDP growth rate was estimated to rise by just 1.5% in 2019. This rate could be further revised downwards following the protests. Imports and exports are already in free fall, due to the trade war between China and the United States and the slowdown in Chinese growth. Exports fell by 3.6% in the first half and imports by 4.5%. In June, exports fell by 9% and imports by 7.5%, the biggest drop since February 2016...
