Air transport: cautious optimism

Admittedly, we are still a long way from returning to the pre-pandemic level of traffic, with experts agreeing that we will have to wait until 2024 to see performance similar to 2019. However, since the summer of 2021, we have seen an upturn in trafficwhich seems to be confirmed month after month. This summer, both Europe and France returned to a passenger traffic level of 50% below that of 2019, whereas in March, traffic was just over 10% below its pre-pandemic level. We could even reach 60% of 2019 levels in the final months of the year.

Cautious optimism is the order of the day. An optimism now underpinned by the planned reopening of borders outside Europe. November will see the opening to foreign travellers of the United Statesof India, ThailandMauritius and Chile. They join Canada, Peru, Brazil, Mexico, Ukraine, Egypt, South Africa and Ethiopia. Airlines are reporting good booking rates on long-haul routes.

However, despite these openings, the experts are talking about 2023 - at the very least - for a return to 2019 figures. This is because there are still many unknownsSuch as the resurgence of the pandemic. Or the absence of major air markets such as China, Japan, Vietnam and Australia, where entry to their respective territories remains restricted or impossible. " Asia remains permanently closed and in Africa there are still major restrictions" says Anne Rigail, CEO of Air France. Added to this is the unknown factor of a slower than expected recovery in international business travel.

All these factors indicate that, while the recovery is here, it still needs to be strengthened. Growth in air transport remains a long-term objective. " Because we're not immune to a return of the pandemic, as we're seeing in countries like the UK, Bulgaria and Romania. So we have a very low visibility after Christmas. But forecasting remains essential to our economic models." says Alain Battisti, President of the Fédération Nationale de l'Aviation Marchande (FNAM).