American Express GBT has just unveiled its annual Hotel Monitor study, sharing its forecasts regarding hotel rate growth in major business cities with travel managers and business travellers. These forecasts are less clear-cut than previously, as for the first time, the TMC is only expressing its projections in the form of a range. The conflict in the Middle East and the volatility of raw material prices: the geopolitical and economic context is clouding the crystal ball.
Therefore, Amex GBT recommends that travel policy managers adopt the low-end scenario if the conflict continues or if global inflation remains in line with the IMF forecast of 4.7 % expected in 2026, but consider the high-end scenario if inflation should exceed this threshold. The EPSA barometer presented at the IFTM exhibition already highlighted this: « following a stabilisation at a high level in 2026, the challenge for 2027 will be less about demand, which remains robust, than about the return of inflation, predicted Christophe Roth, associate director – BU Expertises Conseil at EPSA.
Amex GBT confirms this view. As in 2026, demand for business travel and meetings across the Americas and Europe is expected to remain strong and push prices up alongside persistent inflation, which is particularly marked for airfares. Amex GBT Consulting also highlights that while rising airfares—up to twice as high on routes to Asia-Pacific—are weighing on travel budgets and reshaping demand for the region, business travellers there continue to favour high-end accommodation rather than lowering their expectations.
Taking all these elements into account, Amex GBT expects a significant increase for Europe across most destinations, with certain factors likely to contribute such as the doubling of hotel VAT in Belgium, which has risen from 6 % to 12 %, or the introduction of a 5 % tourist tax in Edinburgh, while other British cities are expected to follow suit.
No doubt it is no coincidence that the Scottish metropolis is showing one of the highest projected increases in Europe – between +6.2 % and +7.1% – , along with Madrid ( from +6.1 % to +9.2 %) and London (+3.6 % to +5.4 %). For Paris, Amex GBT forecasts an increase of +3.1 % to +4.8 %, close to that forecast for Frankfurt (+3.1 % to +4.7 %).
This upward trend is less noticeable in North America. According to Amex GBT, with the exception of San Francisco (+3.6 % to +5.4 %) and Mexico City (+4.7 % to +7.1 %), hotel rates are expected to experience only a milder increase, generally ranging between +1.5 % and +2.5 % in New York, Chicago or Los Angeles, and undoubtedly even lower in Boston, Seattle and Toronto. Conversely, hotel prices in major South American cities are following a similar trajectory to Mexico City, but to a more pronounced degree, with increases of +10.9 % to +12.2 % expected in 2027 in São Paulo and +8.1 % to +8.7 % in Buenos Aires, while Santiago stands out with a range from +2.8% to 4.2%.
Accustomed to robust growth, the Gulf metropolises were hit hard by the shock of the Middle East conflict, with Dubai's hotel occupancy rate plunging to 19.6 % in march, before climbing back to between 40 % and 50 %. And it will no doubt take them some time to recover. Consequently, the TMC is only expecting an increase of +1 % to +2 % in Dubai – where the TMC considers it possible to negotiate better prices – and of +1.7 % to 4.1 % in Abu Dhabi. In Africa, by contrast, Lagos and Johannesburg are expected to see a more pronounced rise in hotel prices.
As for the Asia-Pacific region, Amex GBT forecasts mixed trends in hotel prices across the region, ranging from flat to moderate growth in Singapore and in China’s major business cities, where supply continues to outstrip demand, a relatively sustained rise in rates in Australia, particularly in autumn 2027 when Sydney, Melbourne, Perth will host the Rugby World Cup; and finally India, driven by the economic momentum of a city such as Bengaluru (+5 % to +5.5 %), coupled with a host of hotel projects from major international chains.
